Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) has announced its Monthly Investment Report for December 2025.
Financial markets rounded out 2025 on a more subdued note. After a year of strong returns across risk assets, global equities largely stalled in December as investors digested a flood of central bank communication ahead of the new year. The S&P 500 finished the month marginally negative, likely held back by profit‑taking in the mega‑cap complex, whilst UK and European indices drifted slightly higher. Bond yields climbed modestly, despite the expectation of further rate cuts in 2026, as positioning, inflation uncertainty and supply concerns dominated. In policy‑divergent Japan, bond yields rose as markets tested the central bank’s enthusiasm for keeping interest rates low. Precious metals remained in demand as gold and silver extended their rallies before pulling back into the year end, whilst oil regained ground in the final weeks of the year, after a brief visit below $60, on renewed geopolitical tension.
The board also continued their buybacks. Over the final quarter, they have purchased 6.8 million shares. This brings the total for the year to 38 million shares, or £105m, which equates to 11% of the shares outstanding at the start of the year.
The portfolio was roughly flat in December, consolidating a solid fourth quarter and a calendar year that saw double-digit returns net of fees. The gold equities allocation was again the largest contributor as precious metal miners outperformed bullion in the earlier part of the month. Broader equity exposure also supported portfolio returns, led by a handful of idiosyncratic positions. Trading activity reflected deliberate re‑balancing. We exited the pharmaceutical basket, whose double-digit outperformance of the S&P 500 since the basket’s inception validated our thesis of reduced policy uncertainty and valuation recovery. We also trimmed our mining equities mid-month. Proceeds were redeployed towards fresh sources of dry powder – additions to US and UK interest rate-sensitive equities and single stock exposure. We also doubled our direct oil exposure to around 1%, funded by trimming copper after its sharp rally.
The principal drags on performance came from the derivative protections, which detracted as volatility remained low (the VIX reaching 13.5 on Christmas Eve) and credit spreads tightened further. Fixed income holdings were broadly neutral in contribution terms, but we continued to reduce portfolio duration by roughly half a year, taking advantage of the recovery in the long end of the UK curve as Budget risk cleared. Total portfolio duration now sits below two years – consistent with our view that long-dated bonds are a less reliable source of protection in an environment of elevated inflation volatility.
Looking to the year ahead, the macro environment remains delicately balanced. The Federal Reserve’s dovish tone may sustain risk appetite, yet valuations and positioning imply the market is less able to absorb shocks. Investors are already pricing at least two more US rate cuts – a path achievable perhaps only if growth decelerates – and fiscal stimulus and political dynamics ahead of the mid-term elections could complicate the picture. Against this backdrop, we retain a disciplined stance: reinforcing exposure to attractively priced growth opportunities whilst maintaining the portfolio’s defensive spine. Optimism in markets presents the opportunity to own insurance at appealing levels, allowing us to hold a mix of assets that can prosper whether 2026 delivers a sharp ascent, a soft landing or a bumpier decline.
