Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) has announced its Monthly Investment Report for January 2026:
With echoes of early 2025, global stock markets enjoyed a strong start to the new year. There is certainly a plausible bull story. Robust economic growth, a rate-cutting cycle, fiscal easing, the continuing AI capex boom and a US-China trade détente are all tailwinds as inflation continues to drift lower.
Interest rates are being cut from levels not seen since before the credit crunch. With private sector balance sheets in much better condition than their public equivalents in the US and the UK, a new credit cycle is possible. This would unlock growth beyond tech in economies and markets. If so, our equity book should be well positioned. Unsurprisingly, equities were the primary driver of the fund’s positive performance over the month, with our commodity-related and more cyclically exposed names key beneficiaries of a market rotation away from US tech.
But, with valuations (especially in the US), sentiment and positioning all elevated, there is already a lot of good news priced in many equity markets. And real world policy volatility is rising. The US raid on Venezuela and a crisis within NATO over Greenland underlined the breakdown of Pax Americana and the emergence of a more volatile era. Alongside angst over politicisation of the Fed, the dollar declined and gold soared, enjoying its best month since 1999, despite its biggest one day drop (-9%) in 13 years. Gold mining stocks were the second largest positive contributor to the fund’s performance. With gold looking tactically overstretched, however, we had taken further profits in gold miners before the 30 January plunge and maintain a c4% position. Iran tensions also helped gold and boosted oil, which had otherwise missed a broadening commodities rally. The portfolio has around 4% in direct oil and energy stocks.
The looming US midterm elections present an existential risk for Trump, who needs to avoid impeachment and lame duck status. Having helped his re-election, the cost-of-living crisis is now his political problem. And it is driving a blizzard of interventions, from measures to suppress mortgage and credit card costs to demands that defence firms stop shareholder distributions. Policy activism is just one factor likely to drive higher real world volatility, for which markets are discounting little. Other likely suspects include higher yields if growth runs too hot this year, geopolitics and AI-related fallout – even rogue agents! (see Moltbook).
As ever, the fund is balancing growth exposure against protections should those risks crystallise. Derivatives focused on credit and volatility markets remain the key unconventional defences. The other important protective asset remains the yen. This was weak in January as new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi called a February snap election and promised tax cuts. Japanese government bonds and the yen both sold off. Subsequently, the US and Japanese governments conducted a ‘rate check’, where they call big FX market players about a particular currency cross. It’s a signal that more direct intervention may arrive and suggests both governments are trying to draw a line in the sand. Material downside risk on the yen should now be lower, and it remains extremely cheap, with valuable hedging properties. We boosted cash exposure from c7% to 15%, alongside exposure via yen call options against a range of currencies.
Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) is a British investment company dedicated to investments in internationally listed or quoted equities or equity related securities
