The latest research note from Edison highlights a compelling opportunity at Corero Network Security (LON:CNS), as the company targets market share gains in a rapidly expanding global market for DDoS detection and mitigation.
Corero Network Security is described as a leading provider of distributed denial-of-service protection solutions, with a differentiated technology platform and a growing base of recurring revenues. Edison believes the business is well placed to benefit from structural growth drivers across the cybersecurity landscape.
As Edison’s analysts state, “We expect Corero to achieve market share gains in a growing addressable market.”
A Growing Threat Landscape Driving Demand
DDoS attacks are increasing both in scale and sophistication. According to the research, attacks rose sharply in 2024, underlining the urgency for organisations to strengthen their network defences. Industry forecasts point to an addressable market worth $5.5bn in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 14% through to 2030.
Corero’s solutions are built around deep packet inspection technology, rather than relying solely on traffic pattern recognition. This enables real-time detection and mitigation, helping customers avoid latency issues and reduce downtime.
The Edison note highlights that Corero’s approach is hardware agnostic and software based, allowing customers to implement solutions without significant infrastructure changes. This flexibility supports lower total cost of ownership and scalable deployment.
Subscription Momentum and ARR Growth
Under CEO Carl Herberger, who joined at the start of 2024, the company has restructured its direct sales operations and expanded industry partnerships. The shift towards subscription-based models is already reshaping the revenue mix.
In the first half of 2025, annual recurring revenue increased by 25%, reflecting stronger demand for DDoS protection as a service. Edison views this as strategically positive, even though it affects near-term revenue recognition.
The analysts comment that “we see this as a positive change in the long term, increasing the visibility of revenues, profits and cash generation.”
With renewal rates of 97% to 99% across DDoS PaaS and maintenance contracts, forward visibility is high and the recurring component of revenues continues to rise.
Strategic Partnerships Expanding Reach
Partnerships form a central part of Corero’s go-to-market strategy. Agreements with major industry players such as Akamai, Juniper Networks and GTT Communications broaden distribution channels and support hybrid cloud deployments.
The global partnership with Akamai, in particular, allows Corero’s on-premise SmartWall ONE solution to be sold alongside Akamai’s cloud DDoS offering, opening access to new enterprise customers and geographies.
Edison notes that these partnerships are beginning to generate sizeable opportunities, with Q3 order intake up 23% year on year.
Financial Highlights and Forecasts
The latest research note sets out the following key forecast metrics:
FY24
- Revenue of $24.6m
- Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0m
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.2%
FY25e
- Revenue of $24.7m
- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.2m
- ARR growth continuing at strong levels
FY26e
- Revenue of $28.7m
- Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7m
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.5%
Edison forecasts revenue growth of 16% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, driven by market share gains, new product introductions such as the CORE platform and operational leverage.
Valuation Suggests Upside Potential
Despite near-term earnings volatility linked to the subscription shift, Edison’s valuation work indicates material upside. Peer group analysis suggests the shares are undervalued by around 60%, while a discounted cash flow model implies potential upside of 76%.
Applying a Rule of 40 framework, Edison estimates share price upside of 35%.
The analysts conclude that “Corero’s shares look undervalued.”
Final Thoughts
The latest research note from Edison presents Corero Network Security as a business building stronger foundations for sustainable growth. With rising recurring revenues, expanding partnerships and a differentiated technology platform, the company appears well positioned to capture further share in a structurally growing DDoS mitigation market.
As execution under the new management team continues and operational leverage begins to show through, Edison believes the market may not yet fully reflect Corero’s long-term potential.
