Oil holds firm as rate outlook and supply concerns reshape sentiment

Challenger Energy Group

Crude prices have settled near their highest levels in two weeks, with Brent hovering close to 79 dollars and WTI near 74. For several weeks, oil struggled to hold direction amid weak demand signals and ongoing questions around global growth. That backdrop has not disappeared, but investor attention is now starting to shift to what might come next.

The growing conviction around US rate cuts is starting to have an effect. Market-based probabilities now suggest a first move as early as March, with further cuts expected later in the year. That expectation is beginning to filter through into commodities. Oil tends to benefit from looser financial conditions, both directly through a weaker dollar and indirectly as risk appetite returns to cyclical assets.

Geopolitical tensions are also providing a firmer floor under prices. Houthi attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea have prompted a security response from Western allies, raising concerns over commercial flows and regional stability. At the same time, ongoing issues affecting Russian oil infrastructure have returned to focus, reinforcing the sense that supply remains vulnerable in multiple regions.

Challenger Energy Group Plc (LON:CGE) is an Atlantic-margin focused energy company, with production, development, appraisal, and exploration assets in the region. Challenger Energy’s primary assets are located in Uruguay, where the Company holds two high impact offshore exploration licences, totalling 19,000km2 (gross) and is partnered with Chevron on the AREA-OFF 1 block. Challenger Energy is quoted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.

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