A ripple of change is unfolding beyond the fringes of Tulu Kapi, where the first instalments of community compensation are now in motion. This marks more than an administrative step; it reveals a company poised to translate years of groundwork into tangible progress, setting the stage for a new chapter in Ethiopia and beyond.
From the moment Ethiopia’s state of emergency lifted in early 2022, KEFI Gold and Copper embraced a clear set of prerequisites to re-energise its flagship gold project. Security outposts were erected, an exemption from exchange controls secured, and parliamentary ratification of its banking partners finalised in May 2025 – the last of three critical conditions. It is this culmination that has unlocked the Phase 1 resettlement action plan, with compensation payments now disbursed to affected households. Funded initially from KEFI’s own balance sheet, these outlays will be recouped from the broader project financing package, underscoring management’s commitment to advancing development without delay.
Meticulous alignment with World Bank International Finance Corporation performance standards has guided the community engagement programme, ensuring that resettlement proceeds with both transparency and local collaboration. In parallel, site preparations have accelerated: security and construction camps stand ready, and a new access road approaches completion. These tangible milestones herald a concerted push towards the full development launch, with gold production now slated for the second half of 2027.
Behind this operational momentum lies a well-structured financing blueprint. The updated estimate for development capital has risen modestly to around US$420 million, reflecting both inflationary pressures and an expanded scope. Of this, contractor funding accounts for roughly US$110 million, bank debt for US$240 million and equity risk capital for US$70 million. The equity component has been rationalised from earlier projections, supported by innovative Ethiopian-denominated preference shares issued via a newly established local holding company. These instruments offer domestic investors a rare blend of birr-based subscription with US dollar-linked principal, interest payments and exposure to a rising gold price.
Institutional endorsement has grown in lockstep with KEFI’s preparedness. Recent placings have drawn heavyweight participants such as Ruffer Gold, Konwave/Gold 2000 and Phoenix Precious Metals, with Premier Miton and RAB Capital also joining the register. Their involvement not only bolsters the balance sheet but evidences confidence in the path to commissioning.
Projections for Tulu Kapi’s debut year are compelling. At an assumed gold price of US\$3 000 per ounce, the project is anticipated to generate net operating cash flow of approximately US\$300 million after royalties and tax, paving the way for early debt prepayment, a potential special dividend and reinvestment into KEFI’s wider pipeline. Should these figures materialise in 2028, the board may well revisit capital distribution strategies to maximise shareholder value.
While Ethiopia takes centre stage, KEFI’s strategic gaze extends into the Arabian-Nubian Shield of Saudi Arabia. Its joint venture, Gold and Minerals Limited, has expanded resources by 20 % to the gold-equivalent of 3.8 million ounces and more than doubled its exploration acreage to over 2 200 km², including a new 900 km² belt with Hancock Prospecting. The immediate focus is the Stage 1 oxide phase of the Jibal Qutman gold project, which requires a modest equity infusion of £2–3 million, likely funded from reimbursements due from Tulu Kapi’s financing.
Beyond Jibal Qutman, the GMCO pipeline encompasses further expansions and the development of Hawiah’s copper and gold assets. KEFI’s current 15% stake across these ventures could elevate its aggregate output to more than 200 000 ounces of gold equivalent, diversifying revenue streams across two jurisdictions and multiple commodities. Expressions of interest from potential partners and financiers during the recent strategic review hint at opportunities to optimise the group’s capital structure and accelerate project delivery.
For investors, the convergence of domestic engagement, robust financing structures and international growth options paints a picture of a company transitioning from exploration to production. With the majority of development finance being arranged at subsidiary level, KEFI has positioned itself to minimise reliance on external decisions and maximise operational autonomy. This approach has crystallised into an estimated project-driven valuation of around 8 pence per share, based on current reserves, resources and a conservative discount rate.
As KEFI moves from planning to execution, the next few months promise to be defining. The resettlement programme serves not only as a social imperative but also as a tangible signpost of progress, signalling that the delays of the past are giving way to delivery and growth.
London-listed company KEFI Gold and Copper plc (LON:KEFI) is an exploration and development company focused on gold and copper deposits in the highly prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield. The Company operates in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia with projects including Tulu Kapi project, Jibal Qutman EL and Hawiah.
