Recent signs of weakness in Chinese manufacturing might suggest a bearish outlook for industrial metals, but copper’s pricing behaviour tells a more nuanced story. Futures have edged higher on a more subtle shift in expectations. Even in the face of a stronger dollar and cautious macro sentiment, copper has found a base.
Several large mines across key producing regions have experienced disruption this year, with some projects facing longer‑term operational setbacks. These developments have translated into revised projections for global mine output over the next two years, with expectations now leaning towards a material shortfall.
This shifting supply picture is happening alongside long‑term demand forces that are not particularly sensitive to near‑term industrial softness. The transition to electrification, expansion of data infrastructure and continued investment in energy storage and transmission all underpin copper’s strategic positioning. Even where per‑unit usage in some technologies may be falling, the sheer scale of infrastructure being deployed ensures that aggregate demand remains robust.
Against this backdrop, the market appears to be positioning for a turning point. There is growing conviction that a supply‑demand mismatch will become more visible from 2026 onwards, particularly if new projects fail to accelerate and if grid and clean energy investment continues to gain traction. In many ways, copper is sitting in a rare position, where both cyclical hesitation and structural conviction coexist.
Jubilee Metals Group plc (LON:JLP) is a diversified metal recovery business with a world-class portfolio of projects in South Africa and Zambia. The Company’s expanding multi-project portfolio across South Africa and Zambia provides exposure to a broad commodity basket including Platinum Group Metals, chrome, lead, zinc, vanadium, copper and cobalt.
