A shift in natural‑gas dynamics invites a fresh look at supply constraints

Touchstone Exploration Inc

In the U.S., production from the so‑called Lower 48 states has pulled back from its peak of around 108 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August to roughly 106.4 bcfd in October. This contraction arises amid an evolving export landscape and isn’t purely seasonal. Meanwhile liquefied natural‑gas (LNG) flows from U.S. terminals have reached six‑month highs, feed‑gas flows are climbing toward 17 bcfd, driven particularly by a full restart of certain terminals. These twin factors, marginally lower output plus escalating export commitments, are reducing the free supply buffer that had characterised the recent ‘shoulder’ period.

From a pricing perspective, futures around the Henry Hub benchmark dropped toward the US $2.89 per MMBtu mark, but subsequently rebounded to near US $2.98 as market participants responded to the emerging supply‑demand interplay. Technically speaking, that support zone near US $2.89 appears to be holding, while the resistance around US $3.02 is now in focus. If gas can convincingly clear that, momentum may build toward US $3.30 or higher over the next quarter.

Touchstone Exploration Inc (LON:TXP) is a Canadian-based, international upstream oil and gas company currently active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Primera Oil and Gas is the Trinidadian subsidiary of Touchstone.

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