Rio Tinto Plc (LONRIO) has released fourth quarter 2025 production results.
Standout production results with +8% CuEq production growth in 2025
Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott said: “Our operations delivered exceptional production performance, both on a quarter-on-quarter and full year basis, as we leverage our strong foundation of operating excellence and project delivery across our portfolio.
“We achieved record quarterly iron ore production in the Pilbara, with a strong recovery from the extreme weather interruptions earlier in the year. At Simandou, we celebrated the major milestone of first shipment from the port; a testament to our ability to deliver major growth projects.
“Record copper production continues following delivery of our Oyu Tolgoi underground project, another demonstration of our unique and diverse project capabilities.
“A step change in bauxite production through the year once again highlights the ongoing maturation of our operational excellence.
“In lithium, we achieved production growth from our operations and in-flight projects as planned in 2025, as we build out our high-quality portfolio with discipline.
“Implementation of our stronger, sharper, simpler way of working continues, and is delivering results and creating value.”
1. Executive Summary
• Operational excellence: Copper equivalent (CuEq)1 production rose 8% YoY in 2025, with shipments up 5%, driven by the strong ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi, a record year for bauxite production and our world-class lithium business.
• Iron ore: Pilbara operations achieved record Q4 production, +4% YoY, and shipments, +7% YoY, while the exceptional development pace at Simandou continued with the start of operations and first shipment in Q4.
• Aluminium: Production strength and agility demonstrated across the aluminium value chain in 2025.
• Lithium: Achieved record quarterly production from our operating assets in Argentina.
• Copper: Annual production grew 11% YoY, exceeding the top end of our increased guidance range, driven by the successful ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi, where the underground development project is now complete.
| Production2 | Q42025 | vs Q4 2024 | 2025 | vs 2024 | 2025 guidance | |
| Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) | Mt | 91.3 | +7% | 326.2 | -1% | 323 – 338(at lower end) |
| Pilbara iron ore production (100% basis) | Mt | 89.7 | +4% | 327.3 | – % | NA |
| IOC3 iron ore pellets and concentrate | Mt | 2.2 | -14% | 9.3 | -1% | 9.0 – 9.5 |
| Bauxite | Mt | 15.4 | 0% | 62.4 | +6% | >61 Mt |
| Alumina | Mt | 2.0 | -1% | 7.6 | +4% | 7.4 – 7.8 |
| Aluminium4 | Mt | 0.85 | +2% | 3.38 | +3% | 3.25 – 3.45(at upper end) |
| Copper (consolidated basis) | kt | 240 | +5% | 883 | +11% | 860 – 875 |
| Titanium dioxide slag | Mt | 0.2 | -6% | 1.0 | -2% | 1.0 – 1.2(at lower end) |
| Boric oxide equivalent | Mt | 0.1 | -6% | 0.5 | 0% | ~0.5 |
1 Copper equivalent volume = Rio Tinto’s share of production volume / Volume conversion factor x Product price ($/t) / Copper price ($/t). Prices are based on long-term consensus prices. 2 Rio Tinto share unless otherwise stated. 3 Iron Ore Company of Canada.4 Includes primary aluminium only.
2. Guidance
Production guidance
• 2025 guidance: met or exceeded for our Product Groups.
• 2026 guidance1: unchanged from Capital Markets Day 2025 disclosures, as shown in the table below.
| Production and sales2 | Units | 2026 guidance1 |
| Total iron ore sales | Mt4 | 343 – 366 |
| Pilbara sales3 (100% basis) | Mt4 | 323 – 338 |
| Simandou sales (100% basis) | Mt4 | 5 – 10 |
| IOC5 sales (100% basis) | Mt4 | 15 – 18 |
| Copper production (consolidated)6 | kt | 800 – 870 |
| Aluminium & Lithium | ||
| Bauxite production | Mt | 58 – 61 |
| Alumina production7 | Mt | 7.6 – 8.0 |
| Aluminium production8 | Mt | 3.25 – 3.45 |
| Lithium, LCE production | kt | 61 – 64 |
1 Guidance remains subject to weather impacts. 2 Rio Tinto share unless otherwise stated. Our strategic reviews are advancing as planned, with the next phase focused on identifying the best path to unlock value. As such, we will no longer provide production guidance for Iron & Titanium, and Borates, while this process is underway. 3 Pilbara iron ore guidance remains subject to the timing of approvals for planned mining areas and heritage clearances. 4 Wet metric tonnes. 5 Iron Ore Company of Canada. 6 Circa 10% YoY growth from operated assets. 7 QAL production now included on a 100% basis for guidance. 8 Includes primary aluminium only.
Unit cost guidance
• 2025 unit cost performance and 2026 guidance will be given in the 2025 full year results release on 19 February 2026.
3. Group financial update
Expenditure on exploration and evaluation
• Pre-tax and pre-divestment expenditure on exploration and evaluation charged to the profit and loss account in 2025 was $795 million, compared with $935 million in 2024. Approximately 40% of the spend was by Copper, 32% by central exploration, 19% by Iron Ore (which includes Iron Ore Company of Canada), 8% by other operations and 1% by Aluminium & Lithium. Qualifying expenditure on the Rincon project has been capitalised since 1 July 2024, accounting for most of the decrease in expense.
4. Our markets
Global economy: remains resilient despite persistent shocks and quarterly growth slowing, reflecting fading front-loaded trade flows and restrictive monetary stances in several economies. Inflationary pressures continue to ease globally.
Chinese economy: continues to be driven by production and exports, while investment and consumption moderated in Q4 and the property market remains weak. Policy priorities include advanced manufacturing, technology innovation and green transition, while near-term stimulus remains modest beyond infrastructure support. Trade diversification continues and export composition is shifting towards intermediate and capital goods, semiconductors and EV value chains, alongside offshore manufacturing investments.
US economy: showed resilience despite Q4 government shutdown. Financial conditions have loosened as borrowing costs declined, credit spreads narrowed and equity markets strengthened, all of which have supported financing activity and bolstered business and household confidence.
Iron ore
• China’s domestic steel consumption was stable QoQ, while its net export run-rates (including semi-finished steel) remained well above 120Mtpa.
• Total seaborne iron ore shipments rose 4% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by the non-major producers, whose shipments rose ~10% both QoQ and YoY, while supply from the majors was flat YoY. China’s portside inventories at 47 ports increased by 21Mt during Q4 to 166Mt.
Copper
• London Metal Exchange (LME) prices surged through Q4 to close the year at a high of $5.67/lb ($12,500/t), driven by US interest rate cuts, positive sentiment around AI-driven electricity demand and continued supply disruptions.
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) prices continued to trade above LME prices, averaging ~10c/lb ($216/t) higher through Q41, due to the risk of copper cathode import tariffs. As a result, the US continues to import more copper than is required to meet demand and CME copper inventories are now above 400kt, compared to 85kt at the end of 2024.
• The copper concentrate market remained extremely tight in Q4, with spot treatment and refining charges plunging to -$68/t and the 2026 annual benchmark settling at $0/t, both all-time lows.
Aluminium
• The LME Q4 average price reached its highest level since Q2 2022, supported by increasing expectations of a tighter global aluminium balance in H1 2026, a weaker US dollar and rally in copper prices. Global primary aluminium production showed marginal growth in the first eleven months of 2025, which, coupled with low inventory levels, provided upward momentum to the price.
• In Q4, the US aluminium market premium reached its highest level, on a duty-paid basis, while on a duty-unpaid basis reached the maximum since Q2 2022, on lower levels of imports, the return of contango on LME and continuous de-stocking. European market premiums rose with some demand front-loading before the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) definitive phase, while Japan’s market premium began recovering on anticipated supply tightening.
• Australian FOB alumina prices continued to fall in Q4 due to higher production in Indonesia and China, and elevated stock levels in China. Refineries in the upper quartile of the cost curve are unprofitable at current price levels, based on third-party data.
• Chinese bauxite spot import prices continued to decline in Q4 on higher seaborne supply to China, primarily from Guinea, where idled mines show signs of restarting at the end of the wet season.
Lithium
• The lithium carbonate price increased 55% in Q4 fuelled by growing optimism for battery energy storage systems demand and strong shipment activity out of China. Global electric vehicle sales continued to grow at a rapid pace, reinforcing confidence in the sector. This momentum has prompted broad upgrades to lithium demand expectations.
1 CME front month vs LME cash price.
Borates
• Market price was stable in Q4, with supply and demand balanced following market disruptions earlier in the year. Demand in China and the USA continued to be stable.
Titanium dioxide
• Demand across key TiO2 downstream sectors remained soft amid persistent macro headwinds, particularly in property and construction. Elevated inventories and ongoing margin pressures have compelled pigment producers to scale back TiO2 feedstock purchases. Following weak demand, some TiO2 feedstock supply was curtailed in 2025; supply is estimated to have declined ~5% year-on-year.
| Index prices | Start of Q4(01/10/25) | End of Q4(31/12/25) | % change Start – End Q4 | Q3 2025 average | Q4 2025 average | % change QoQ | 2024 average | 2025 average | % change YoY |
| Iron ore ($/dmt CFR China)1 | 104 | 109 | +5% | 102 | 106 | +4% | 109 | 102 | -6% |
| Copper (LME spot, c/lb) | 466 | 567 | +22% | 444 | 503 | +13% | 415 | 451 | +9% |
| Aluminium (LME spot, $/t) | 2,684 | 2,968 | +11% | 2,618 | 2,827 | +8% | 2,419 | 2,632 | +9% |
| Lithium carbonate (spot, $/t CIF China, Japan & Korea)2 | 9,380 | 14,500 | +55% | 9,042 | 10,534 | +17% | 13,083 | 9,451 | -28% |
1 Monthly average Platts (CFR) index for 62% iron fines. This is reflective of the pricing basis before we introduced the new product strategy (see Iron Ore section for further details).
2 Fastmarkets index for Lithium carbonate min 99.5% Li2CO3 battery grade.
Average realised prices achieved for our major commodities
| Units | H1 2025 | H2 2025 | 2025 | 2024 | |
| Pilbara iron ore | FOB, $/wmt | 82.5 | 83.1 | 82.8 | 89.6 |
| Pilbara iron ore1 | FOB, $/dmt | 89.7 | 90.3 | 90.0 | 97.4 |
| Aluminium2 | Metal $/t | 3,125 | 3,504 | 3,318 | 2,834 |
| Copper3 | US c/lb | 436 | 479 | 457 | 422 |
| IOC pellets | FOB $/wmt | 130 | 121 | 126 | 144 |
1 Assuming 8% moisture.
2 LME plus all-in premiums (product and market). The US Midwest premium adapted to tariff levels in 2025, fully compensating for the 50% tariff after an initial period. Tariff costs are shown on page 9.
3 Average realised price for all units sold. Realised price does not include the impact of the provisional pricing adjustments, which positively impacted revenues in 2025 by $758 million (2024 negative impact of $92 million).
