Copper has entered the final stretch of 2025 pushing against levels that once marked its peak. Prices have edged towards $12,000 a tonne, drawing focus for what is happening beneath it. It is a market revealing a fundamental realignment between supply, processing, and demand.
For the first time, annual contracts between miners and smelters have settled at zero. That means miners are paying nothing for their concentrate to be processed. In some spot deals, smelters are now offering to work at a loss simply to keep feedstock flowing.
Chinese smelters, some of the largest in the world, have responded with the only leverage they have left. Facing negative margins, several have signalled plans to reduce output in the year ahead. That in turn threatens to tighten the refined copper market just as global demand continues to broaden. From AI data centres to regional infrastructure programmes, copper’s role as an enabler has become more entrenched across sectors.
Great Western Mining Corporation Plc (LON:GWMO) is a mineral exploration and development company, incorporated in Ireland with operations in the USA.
