Ampeak Energy (LON:AMP) has taken another meaningful step forward with the financial close on its Afon Wsyg 1 battery energy storage system, AW1, in South Wales. The project underscores the company’s strategy to develop and fund grid-scale storage while retaining a significant equity stake, in this case 75 percent. Zeus Capital has refreshed its model to fully consolidate AW1’s revenue, costs and debt, and to reflect updated timing on land sale proceeds and partner equity contributions. The result is a reshaped forecast profile that lifts revenue expectations for 2025 and better reflects the cadence of build-out and cash movements across 2025 and 2026.
The near term picture now includes 2025 Sales of £15.5 million and EBITDA of £8.9 million, moving to Sales of £11.7 million and EBITDA of £5.0 million in 2026 as project timing shifts, with adjusted PBT of £1.6 million in 2025 and a £4.7 million loss in 2026. Net debt steps up as AW1 is fully consolidated and CAPEX phases through the build, ending 2025 at £72.6 million and 2026 at £108.3 million on Zeus estimates. The company retains access to liquidity from Uskmouth BESS expansion payments totalling £9.1 million across 2026 and 2027, the £8.5 million Cardiff Capital Region loan, and existing cash.
AW1 is part of a broader storage platform anchored at the former Uskmouth power station site in Wales and at the Mey site in Scotland. Alongside storage, Ampeak continues to operate the innovative 6MW MeyGen tidal project, with Contract for Difference support in place for an additional 59MW, offering longer term upside once developed. While the group’s net debt is material, Zeus highlights that the majority sits within the MeyGen subsidiary, limiting its direct impact at plc level.
In updating its valuation, Zeus lifts its risked NAV for BESS to 8.0p per share and sets tidal at 0.8p, combining to 8.8p. The broker also illustrates how AW1’s value per MW could rise as it transitions from pre-CAPEX to operations, moving from £183k per MW unrisked prior to major spend to £395k per MW if rolled forward to first operations in 2027.
Directly quoting Research Analyst Daniel Slater, CFA: “On a risked basis we value the BESS portfolio at 8.0p, with the potential for tidal to add another 0.8p, and we have a positive outlook for the shares.”
Highlights from Zeus Capital’s note
- AW1 financial close achieved, with Ampeak retaining a 75 percent equity stake.
- 2025E Sales £15.5m, EBITDA £8.9m, Adj PBT £1.6m, reflecting full consolidation of AW1.
- 2026E Sales £11.7m, EBITDA £5.0m, Adj PBT £(4.7)m, shaped by updated CAPEX and cash timing.
- Net debt expected at £72.6m in 2025 and £108.3m in 2026, largely due to AW1 consolidation and CAPEX phasing.
- Risked NAV: BESS 8.0p, Tidal 0.8p, combined 8.8p per share.
- Strategic pipeline: capacity for 806MW of further BESS across Uskmouth and Mey, supported by grid connections.
Why this matters
Grid storage is increasingly central to balancing intermittent generation and stabilising the electricity system. By pushing AW1 into construction with a majority stake, Ampeak is demonstrating a model that can scale across its permitted sites. The near term will be defined by execution, including AW1’s build towards first operations in 2027, continued progress on additional BESS units at Uskmouth and Mey, and the pursuit of tidal expansion at MeyGen.
Final Thoughts: Zeus Capital’s refreshed work paints a picture of disciplined development, pragmatic financing and a clearer path to an operational storage portfolio. With AW1 advancing and a substantial pipeline in hand, Ampeak Energy investors have tangible milestones to watch, from construction progress to subsequent financial closes, while the tidal platform provides optionality for medium-term growth.
