Shell Plc (LON:SHEL) has published its second quarter 2025 update note.
The following is an update to the second quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on July 31, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 927 | 900 – 940 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.6 | 6.4 – 6.8 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 | 1.0 – 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.4 – 1.8 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 | 0.3 – 0.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25. | |||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,855 | 1,660 – 1,760 | Reflects scheduled maintenance and the completed sale of SPDC in Nigeria. |
| Underlying opex | 2.2 | 1.9 – 2.5 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.2 | 2.0 – 2.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.6 | 1.6 – 2.4 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2’25 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2’25 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | |||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,674 | 2,600 – 3,000 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.4 | 2.3 – 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be higher than Q1’25. | |||
Chemicals and Products
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Indicative refining margin* | $6.2/bbl | $8.9/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin* | $126/tonne | $166/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be a loss. |
| Refinery utilisation | 85% | 92% – 96% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 81% | 68% – 72% | Chemicals utilisation impacted by unplanned maintenance at Monaca. |
| Underlying opex | 2.0 | 1.7 – 2.1 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | 0.1 | (0.3) – 0.2 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25. The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q2’25. | |||
*See appendix
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | — | (0.4) – 0.2 | Trading & Optimisation is expected to be lower than Q1’25. |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.5) | (0.6) – (0.4) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax paid | 2.9 | 2.8 – 3.6 | |
| Derivative movements | — | (1) – 3 | |
| Working capital | (2.7) | (1) – 4 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | |||
| – | |||
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities.
Consensus
The company compiled consensus, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 23, 2025.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
| Chemicals & Products | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $6.2/bbl | $8.9/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $126/tonne | $166/tonne |
The formulas for Indicative refining margin (IRM) and Indicative chemicals margin (ICM) have been updated following the completion of the Singapore divestment. Applying the previous formula for Q2’25 the IRM would have been: $7.5/bbl and the ICM $143/tonne.
Volume Data
| Operational Metrics | Q1’25 | Q2’25 QPR Outlook | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 927 | 890 – 950 | 900 – 940 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.6 | 6.3 – 6.9 | 6.4 – 6.8 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,855 | 1,560 – 1,760 | 1,660 – 1,760 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,674 | 2,600 – 3,100 | 2,600 – 3,000 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 85% | 87% – 95% | 92% – 96% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 81% | 74% – 82% | 68% – 72% |
Underlying Opex
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2025 unaudited results.
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q1’25 Adjusted | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.5 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 2.8 | ||
| Research and development | 0.2 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 8.6 | 8.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.1 | ||
| Underlying Opex | 8.5 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 – 1.2 |
| Upstream | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 – 2.5 |
| Marketing | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 – 2.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 – 2.1 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q1’25 Adjusted | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.3 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 – 1.8 |
| Upstream | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 – 2.6 |
| Marketing | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 – 1.0 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Taxation Charge
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q1’25 Adjusted | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 4.1 | 4.1 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | 0.3 | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 3.8 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 – 0.6 |
| Upstream | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 – 2.4 |
| Marketing | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.6 |
| Chemicals and Products | — | 0.1 | (0.3) – 0.2 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | — | 0.1 |
Adjusted Earnings
The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2025 unaudited results.
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q1’25 Adjusted | Q2’25 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 4.8 | 4.8 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | — | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.8) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 5.6 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.2) | — | (0.4) – 0.2 |
| Corporate | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.6) – (0.4) |
