Shell Plc updates Q2 2025 outlook across all segments

Shell plc

Shell Plc (LON:SHEL) has published its second quarter 2025 update note.

The following is an update to the second quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on July 31, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items. 

See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.

   Integrated Gas

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)927900 – 940 
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)6.66.4 – 6.8 
Underlying opex1.01.0 – 1.2 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation1.41.4 – 1.8 
Taxation charge0.80.3 – 0.6 
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25.

 Upstream

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Production (kboe/d)1,8551,660 – 1,760Reflects scheduled maintenance and the completed sale of SPDC in Nigeria.
Underlying opex2.21.9 – 2.5 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation2.22.0 – 2.6 
Taxation charge2.61.6 – 2.4 
Other Considerations:
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2’25 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2’25 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion.

 Marketing

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Sales volumes (kb/d)2,6742,600 – 3,000 
Underlying opex2.42.3 – 2.7 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation0.60.5 – 0.7 
Taxation charge0.40.2 – 0.6 
Other Considerations:
Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be higher than Q1’25.

  Chemicals and Products

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted EBITDA:
Indicative refining margin*$6.2/bbl$8.9/bbl 
Indicative chemicals margin*$126/tonne$166/tonneThe Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be a loss.
Refinery utilisation85%92% – 96% 
Chemicals utilisation81%68% – 72%Chemicals utilisation impacted by unplanned maintenance at Monaca.
Underlying opex2.01.7 – 2.1 
Adjusted Earnings:
Pre-tax depreciation0.90.8 – 1.0 
Taxation charge / (credit)0.1(0.3) – 0.2 
Other Considerations:
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25. The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q2’25.

*See appendix

 Renewables and Energy Solutions

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted Earnings(0.4) – 0.2Trading & Optimisation is expected to be lower than Q1’25.

Corporate

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
Adjusted Earnings(0.5)(0.6) – (0.4) 

Shell Group

$ billionsQ1’25Q2’25 OutlookComment
CFFO:
Tax paid2.92.8 – 3.6 
Derivative movements(1) – 3 
Working capital(2.7)(1) – 4 
Other Shell Group Considerations:
– 

Guidance

The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities.

Consensus

The company compiled consensus, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 23, 2025.

Appendix

Indicative Margins

Chemicals & ProductsQ1’25Q2’25 Updated Outlook
Indicative refining margin$6.2/bbl$8.9/bbl
Indicative chemicals margin$126/tonne$166/tonne

The formulas for Indicative refining margin (IRM) and Indicative chemicals margin (ICM) have been updated following the completion of the Singapore divestment. Applying the previous formula for Q2’25 the IRM would have been: $7.5/bbl and the ICM $143/tonne. 

Volume Data

Operational MetricsQ1’25Q2’25 QPR OutlookQ2’25 Updated Outlook
Integrated Gas   
Production (kboe/d)927890 – 950900 – 940
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)6.66.3 – 6.96.4 – 6.8
Upstream   
Production (kboe/d)1,8551,560 – 1,7601,660 – 1,760
Marketing   
Sales volumes (kb/d)2,6742,600 – 3,1002,600 – 3,000
Chemicals & Products   
Refinery utilisation85%87% – 95%92% – 96%
Chemicals utilisation81%74% – 82%68% – 72%

Underlying Opex

Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2025 unaudited results.

$ billionsQ1’25Q1’25 AdjustedQ2’25 Updated Outlook
Production and manufacturing expenses5.5  
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses2.8  
Research and development0.2  
Operating Expenses (Opex)8.68.6 
Less: Identified Items 0.1 
Underlying Opex 8.5 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas1.01.01.0 – 1.2
    Upstream2.22.21.9 – 2.5
    Marketing2.42.42.3 – 2.7
    Chemicals and Products2.12.01.7 – 2.1
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.70.7 

Depreciation, depletion and amortisation

$ billionsQ1’25Q1’25 AdjustedQ2’25 Updated Outlook
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation5.45.4 
Less: Identified Items 0.3 
Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) 5.1 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas1.41.41.4 – 1.8
    Upstream2.22.22.0 – 2.6
    Marketing0.50.60.5 – 0.7
    Chemicals and Products1.10.90.8 – 1.0
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.10.1 

Taxation Charge

$ billionsQ1’25Q1’25 AdjustedQ2’25 Updated Outlook
Taxation Charge4.14.1 
Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment 0.3 
Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) 3.8 
    of which:   
    Integrated Gas0.80.80.3 – 0.6
    Upstream3.02.61.6 – 2.4
    Marketing0.40.40.2 – 0.6
    Chemicals and Products0.1(0.3) – 0.2
    Renewables and Energy Solutions0.1 

Adjusted Earnings

The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2025 unaudited results.

$ billionsQ1’25Q1’25 AdjustedQ2’25 Updated Outlook
Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders4.84.8 
Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders  
Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders (0.8) 
Adjusted Earnings 5.6 
    of which:   
    Renewables and Energy Solutions(0.2)(0.4) – 0.2
    Corporate(0.5)(0.5)(0.6) – (0.4)

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