Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) has announced its Monthly Investment Report for October 2025:
The fund continued to make positive progress in October, driven by its equity and long-dated UK bond holdings. Whilst the US government shut down for the month, the same cannot be said for financial markets. Global equity indices hit all-time highs and precious metals surged then sharply corrected, not to mention that October saw the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history.
The behaviour of gold markets over the month was remarkable. The precious metal sits within concentric market narratives, viewed as an alternative to the US dollar, a protection against monetary debasement and central bank independence concerns, and a geopolitical hedge in an increasingly fractured world. Gold bullion soared over 13% in as many days to its October peak, before suffering its sixth largest drawdown since 1980, and yet finished the month above $4,000. The moves in silver, platinum and precious metal miners were even more dramatic. Central bank purchases have underpinned the rally since 2022, but western investor inflows have driven the recent advance. We continued to take profits in the portfolio’s gold mining equities, nearly halving the allocation since June by October’s market peak. We maintain a meaningful position because global investor allocations are still low, and the structural drivers remain in place.
We are also finding opportunities in UK markets. Falling yields over the month saw the portfolio’s long-dated gilts make the largest contribution to performance. The UK bear case is well known: high government indebtedness, sluggish economic growth and underwhelming productivity, combined with years of weak and unstable leadership, have pushed yields up and equity multiples down; and we are approaching the UK Budget statement, which will almost certainly tighten the purse strings. However, October saw falling inflation, and a fiscally responsible budget would enable the Bank to England to cut rates further. Commercial bank lending conditions are also improving. We believe there is meaningful upside potential in many UK stocks, and we added to interest rate sensitive equities over the month.
Short and sharp bouts of equity volatility have become the norm in 2025: threats of ‘massive’ tariffs on China, and worries over regional bank and private credit quality, only momentarily dented investor spirits. Markets were buoyed by the prospects of looser monetary policy, easing global trade tensions, and AI optimism. Having trimmed the gold equity position, we added to out-of-favour pharmaceutical stocks and to a basket of Japan equities. However, we are still deeply cautious of the US market, where cyclically adjusted valuations are nearing record highs and market breadth has been deteriorating. The portfolio remains defensive, with around a third invested in equities and gold mining shares, protected by equity derivatives and credit default strategies.
