Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) has announced its Monthly Report for November 2025:
After the sugar rush of October, equities encountered trickier conditions in November. Markets were driven primarily by the expected path of monetary policy, which had roundtripped by the end of the month. Bond yields rose initially, catalysed by signs of firmer economic data and more cautionary Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. Global equities slipped over 3% to their intra-month trough, with US equities down almost 5%, before a shift in the Fed’s tone prompted investors to position again for an interest rate cut in December. The portfolio finished the month in positive territory, supported by contributions from gold mining and pharmaceutical equity exposure.
After months of anticipation, the UK Budget was finally unveiled. Ultimately, the Chancellor was able to avoid some of the most difficult decisions because the projected fiscal hole was less deep than anticipated. While the portfolio has significant positions in domestic-focused UK equities and index-linked gilts, meaningful exposure out of sterling offset some of the portfolio’s event sensitivity. In the lead up to the Budget, we trimmed the position in longdated index-linked gilts. This reflected a tactical opportunity to sell into the recent recovery in the bonds, as well as an acknowledgement of their vulnerability to a poorly received Budget. With the Budget now behind us, UK assets can again be viewed with a longer-term perspective. Our conviction remains that UK equities stand out on valuation compared with their global peers – an advantage far less evident for either gilts or sterling. One area of opportunity is the housebuilders, which have struggled since the pandemic and trade at depressed valuations. With solid balance sheets and substantial dividends, these stocks offer an attractive risk-reward if the Bank of England cuts rates further.
November was a reminder of the tightrope markets are navigating. Interest rate cuts are good news so long as the economy is stable. But what if growth proves stronger than expected and stimulus needs to be withdrawn? Markets are currently pricing in three US rate cuts in 2026, which would coincide with planned fiscal easing. Perhaps the next Fed chair will be willing to run things hot, but that would likely come at a cost to the bond market and currency. We are concerned that the market is ill-prepared for outcomes outside its base case. This leaves us with attractive opportunities beyond the crowded trades. Growth assets in less fashionable areas – such as the UK – offer compelling entry points, and low volatility means portfolio protections are also attractively priced.
