The latest research note from Panmure Liberum provides a reassuring update on The Artisanal Spirits Company Plc (LON:ART), highlighting stabilising trends and renewed momentum across key markets. Lead analyst Wayne Brown reiterates a Buy recommendation with a target price of 75.0p, offering an encouraging outlook for the premium whisky group despite previous challenges in the US market.
Brown notes that trading in 2025 was “largely in line with expectations”, with the group navigating headwinds effectively, especially delays in US shipments and distribution changes which accounted for an estimated 18% drag on sales. Encouragingly, these issues are now behind the company, allowing the focus to shift back to growth.
Geographic and Segment Recovery
Performance in the second half of 2025 showed improvement across all key territories. UK venue sales continued on a steady upward trajectory, achieving mid to high single-digit revenue growth each quarter. Online sales volumes in Europe picked up in the latter half of the year, and both the US and China saw a recovery in momentum. In the US, ASC managed to post mid-single digit growth in Q4, rebounding from a -30% decline earlier in the year. China also saw a slowdown in revenue decline during 2H.
Wayne Brown highlighted this turnaround, stating, “Trading improved in 2H across most key geographies: (1) UK venue sales continued to grow, (2) European online volumes returned to growth after a flat 1H, and (3) trends in both the US and China improved.”
Strong Membership Base and Expanding Brands
The Scotch Malt Whisky Society (SWMS), Artisanal Spirits Company’s flagship membership model, remains a solid foundation for the business. Despite a reported fall in year-end membership figures from 42.7k to around 40k, this reflects the exclusion of a one-off group of non-renewing promotional signups. The underlying retention rate held firm at just over 70%, and ASC successfully recruited over 11,000 new members globally during the year — a record for both the UK and China.
Meanwhile, the Single Cask Nation (SCN) brand delivered double-digit revenue growth, even with a shipment delay that deferred c.10% of its annual sales to early 2026. Cask sales were also robust, showing double-digit revenue growth and strong early results from the newly launched Artisan Cask brand.
Financial Outlook and Valuation
Panmure Liberum underscores the value of ASC’s inventory, which remains a key underpinning of its investment case. The company holds over 18,000 casks with a market value of more than £100m, significantly higher than its £25m market capitalisation. Looking ahead, ASC is guiding for a mid- to high-single-digit EBITDA margin in FY26E, with expectations to turn free cash flow positive.
FY25 Operational Highlights
- Group sales for FY25 are forecast at £21m, recovering to £24m in FY26E
- Underlying EBITDA expected to rebound from -£0.5m in FY25E to £1.7m in FY26E
- Net debt remains stable at around £31.8m
- Inventory valued at over £100m, compared to a £54m enterprise value
- Membership base steady at ~40k, with 11,000+ new members added globally
Final Thoughts
The Artisanal Spirits Company has weathered a tough year with resilience and is well-positioned for recovery and growth in 2026. The brand’s international reach, loyal member base, and substantial whisky inventory offer strong support for its market valuation. With operational issues in the US resolved and improving global trends, Panmure Liberum’s confidence in the group is clearly backed by fundamental progress.
