Brent and WTI prices are heading for roughly 4% gains this week, the strongest such advance in three months.
The catalyst lies in Russia’s announcement of a partial ban on diesel exports through year-end, layered on top of its existing gasoline export curbs. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure have chipped away at domestic output, leaving pockets of fuel shortages across key regions.
The upshot is that oil markets are entering a phase where direction may be driven less by cyclical demand shifts and more by the slippage of supply under geopolitical stress.
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