Ukraine’s recent drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has jolted oil markets, triggering a price jump of over 2% in a single session. The strike damaged both a ship and a fuel terminal at one of Russia’s most important energy export hubs. The disruption is seen as a meaningful escalation, signalling that Ukraine is now actively targeting infrastructure critical to Russia’s oil revenues.
This geopolitical pressure coincides with a revised demand outlook from the International Energy Agency. The IEA now expects oil demand to grow by 790 000 barrels per day in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 710 000. Meanwhile, global oil supply in October declined by around 440 000 barrels per day, with field maintenance in Kazakhstan and Libya contributing to the shortfall.
Despite this tightening backdrop, US commercial crude inventories have shown a surprise build, rising by over 6 million barrels. That suggests short‑term supply may not yet be under immediate stress, though the broader picture still points to a more finely balanced market than in recent quarters. Analysts continue to warn of a possible supply surplus in 2026, but that does little to change the immediate trajectory of prices or sentiment.
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