In the latest research note from Panmure Liberum, analysts Wayne Brown and Anubhav Malhotra reiterate their BUY recommendation on specialist online wine retailer Naked Wines Plc (LON: WINE). The update reflects confidence in the company’s continued strategic shift toward profitability, even in the face of declining headline revenues.
The note, dated 29 January 2026, highlights that peak trading during the crucial 13-week festive period to 29 December was “in line with expectations”, and current trading remains on course with full-year guidance. The analysts underscore management’s discipline in avoiding unprofitable revenue and reallocating spend towards core, repeat customers.
According to the analysts, “The group aims to build a smaller but materially more profitable business centred on customers who value the Naked Wines proposition most, providing a strong base for sustainable profitable growth and supporting its medium-term adjusted EBITDA target of £9–14m p.a.”
Panmure Liberum also notes that investors can benefit from clear visibility on £40m of cash generation from excess inventory. In a move that should catch the attention of shareholders, this capital provides scope for returning approximately 34% of the company’s current market capitalisation via buybacks over the next four years.
Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 19% at constant currency during peak trading (21% on a reported basis), these results are consistent with the strategy of focusing on higher-value customers. Repeat customer sales fell by 16%, suggesting a sharper drop in revenue from newer customers – a trend the company has embraced to avoid excessive customer acquisition costs. Encouragingly, average order value rose by 5% at constant currency.
The analysts note that full-year 2026 revenue is expected to land at the lower end of the £200–216m guidance range, but with adjusted EBITDA forecast at the upper end of the £5.5–7.5m range. Meanwhile, net cash (excluding lease liabilities) is anticipated between £33–35m, slightly lower than previous estimates due to the impact of US dollar depreciation and an additional share buyback during December.
With the next major update due in April 2026, Panmure Liberum’s position remains clear. They reaffirm their 160p target price and their positive outlook, backed by the company’s commitment to profitable growth and improved cash generation.
FY26E Highlights
- Revenue: Expected £200m
- Adjusted EBITDA: £7.2m forecast
- Net Cash (excl. leases): £33–35m
- Average Order Value: +5% (constant currency)
- Repeat Customer Sales: -16% (constant currency)
- Share Buybacks: ~34% of current market cap targeted over 4 years
On a Final Note
Naked Wines’ strategic reset is showing signs of traction. By narrowing its focus to loyal, higher-value customers and exercising cost discipline, the company is rebuilding on a firmer footing. As Wayne Brown and Anubhav Malhotra affirm, the current path “provides a strong base for sustainable profitable growth,” making the stock an attractive consideration for long-term investors aligned with this vision.
