Investec Plc (LON:INVP) has announced its scheduled pre-close trading update for the interim period ending 30 September 2025 (1H2026). An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 10:00 South African time. Please register for the call at www.investec.com/investorrelations.
Commentary on the Group’s financial performance in this pre-close trading update represents the five months ended 31 August 2025 and compares forecast 1H2026 to 1H2025 (30 September 2024).
1H2026 earnings update and guidance
The Group’s results for 1H2026 are expected to be in line with the prior period. Our solid performance and strong capital generation has enabled us to continue supporting our clients while accelerating investment in identified growth initiatives.
The Group continued to make progress on our strategic objectives, notwithstanding the challenging macroeconomic backdrop and market volatility that prevailed year to date. We are on track with our strategy to build scale, leverage existing client franchises and execute plans to enhance our proposition. As part of ongoing capital management, the Group has repurchased c.R1.1 billion / c.£46 million of the c.R2.5 billion / c.£100 million share buy-back programme announced in May 2025. We remain committed to advancing returns towards the upper end of our target range by FY2030.
For the six months ended 30 September 2025, the Group expects:
· Adjusted earnings per share of 38.7p to 41.5p (1H2025: 39.5p) or c.2% behind to c.5% ahead of prior period
· Headline earnings per share of 35.2p to 38.0p (1H2025: 36.6p) or c.4% behind to c.4% ahead of prior period
· Basic earnings per share of 36.0p to 38.8p (1H2025: 36.6p) or c.2% behind to c.6% ahead of prior period
· Pre-provision adjusted operating profit to be between £509.4 million and £540.3 million (1H2025: £541.6 million) or c.6% behind to flat relative to prior period
· Credit loss ratio to be within the through-the-cycle (TTC) range of 25bps to 45bps. The overall credit quality remained strong
· Cost to income ratio to be between 52% and 54%, in line with full year guidance
· Adjusted operating profit before tax between £451.0 million and £481.8 million
(1H2025: £474.7 million)
o In Southern Africa, the Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be ahead of prior period by up to c.7% in Rands (1H2025: R5 251 million, £224.6 million). Group Investments is expected to be behind the strong prior period, resulting in the overall Southern African business adjusted operating profit of c.5% behind to flat versus prior period in Rands (1H2025: R5 890 million, £252.0 million). The credit loss ratio is expected to be around the lower end of the TTC range of 15bps to 35bps. The Southern African business ROE is expected to be c.18.5%, well within the 16% to 20% medium-term target range. The Investec Limited CET1 ratio at 30 June 2025 was 15.3%1 (30 September 2024: 14.8%)
o The UK business, including our interest in Rathbones, adjusted operating profit is expected to be c.1% behind to c.6% ahead of the prior period (1H2025: £222.7 million). The UK Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be c.4% behind to c.4% ahead of the prior period (1H2025: £202.3 million). We expect to report a credit loss ratio around the upper end of the previously guided range of 50bps to 60bps. The UK business ROTE is expected to be c.13%, within the medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. The Investec plc CET1 ratio at 30 June 2025 was 12.2%2 (30 September 2024: 12.6%3)
· Group ROE to be between 13% and 14%, within our medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. Group ROTE is expected to be between 15% and 16%, within the 14% to 18% medium-term range.
The year-to-date performance which formed the basis for the above expectations is summarised below:
· Revenue was supported by increased activity levels, higher average advances, and positive net inflows in discretionary and annuity funds under management (FUM). This was counterbalanced by the negative impact of lower average interest rates and the reduced income from the Group investments portfolio
o Net interest income reflects growth in average lending books, and success in our strategic execution to optimise the funding mix in Southern Africa. This was offset by the endowment effect of declining interest rates
o Non-interest Revenue (NIR) growth was underpinned by strong fee generation from our Banking businesses, as well as higher annuity fees from our SA Wealth & Investment business. The market volatility that prevailed has resulted in increased client demand for hedging, supporting customer flow trading income in the UK. Southern African investment and trading income were behind the prior period which benefitted from the positive sentiment post the GNU formation. NIR also benefitted from growth in the Group’s share of Rathbones post-tax underlying profit attributable to shareholders
· Fixed operating expenditure growth reflected continued and accelerated investment in people and technology for strategic growth, as well as inflationary pressures. Variable remuneration was in line with underlying business performance.
1 Investec Limited is predominately on the advanced approach for credit and market risk. Investec Limited’s capital information includes unappropriated profits. If unappropriated profits are excluded from capital information, Investec Limited’s CET1 ratio would be 186bps (165bps) lower.
2 Investec plc reports capital ratios measured on a Standardised capital measurement approach. Investec plc’s June 2025 CET1 ratio excludes quarterly profits and associated foreseeable charges and dividends for the period 1 April 2025 to 30 June 2025. In accordance with the Prudential Regulation Authority rules, quarterly profits may only be included in a firm’s capital position once the profits have been independently verified by an external audit firm.
3Investec plc’s September 2024 capital disclosures follow Investec’s normal basis of presentation and do not include the deduction of foreseeable charges and dividends when calculating the CET1 ratio as required under the Capital Requirements Regulation.
For the five-month period ended 31 August 2025:
· Within Specialist Banking, core loans increased by 4.7% annualised to £33.0 billion
(31 March 2025: £32.4 billion) and increased by 5.5% annualised in neutral currency, driven by growth across the corporate lending books, as well as private client lending in both geographies
· Customer deposits decreased by 1.9% annualised to £40.8 billion and decreased by 1.1% annualised in neutral currency. The decrease is primarily driven by the continuation of our strategy to optimise the liability mix in Southern Africa where non-wholesale deposit growth was 8.5% annualised while wholesale deposits declined by 12.8% annualised
· FUM in our Southern African Wealth business increased by 7.8% to £25.2 billion (31 March 2025: £23.4 billion). Net discretionary and annuity inflows of R9.3 billion were partly offset by outflows of R7.7 billion in non-discretionary FUM
· Investec’s associate, Rathbones reported funds under management and administration (FUMA) of £109.0 billion as at 30 June 2025.
The Group has robust capital and liquidity levels to manage the impact of external challenges and deliver on our clear and executable strategy to enhance long-term shareholder returns.
Other information
The financial information on which this trading update and trading statement is based, has not been reviewed and reported on by the external auditors.
An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 10:00 South African time. Please REGISTER HERE for the call.
Interim results and Business update
The interim results for the six months ending 30 September 2025 are scheduled for release on Thursday, 20 November 2025. Following the interim results presentation, the Group will provide an update on our Corporate mid-market growth initiatives.
Webcast details will be provided in due course.
