Labour have achieved a comfortable victory in the West Lancashire by-election, prompting Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves to declare that the Conservatives have “run out of road”. Labour’s Ashley Dalton secured the seat with a 10.5% swing from the Tories, replacing the long-standing MP Rosie Cooper who stood down last September.
This result is the latest indication of the Tories’ struggles ahead of this May’s local elections, as they are currently trailing Labour in national polls. Ms Reeves said that the voters of West Lancashire had sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and his government that they were “no longer fit to govern”.
However, Tory MP Scott Benton commented that the swing to Labour was “modest” and “very similar to what you’d expect given the national polling”. He added that, if Labour were on course for a majority win in the next general election, one would expect them to have achieved a record majority.
The result in West Lancashire shows that the government has struggled to maintain its position after 12 years in power, with Labour now firmly in the lead in national opinion polls. If the same swing is repeated throughout the country, this could be enough for Labour to gain a majority and be elected into Number 10. However, local by-elections produce small turnouts and this must be considered when drawing conclusions about a bigger political picture.
