Shell plc (LON:SHEL) has announced that the following is an update to the third quarter 2026 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the third quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual third quarter 2026 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on 29 October, 2026. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used, the reconciliation from GAAP to non-GAAP and the most comparable GAAP measure.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Production (kboe/d) | 631 | 740 – 780 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.7 | 7.2 – 7.6 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.1 | 1.3 – 1.5 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 | 1.1 – 1.5 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 | 0.6 – 0.9 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q2’26. Outlook includes the acquisition of ARC resources, which completed on 2 September, 2026. | |||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,824 | 1,735 – 1,835 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.2 | 2.1 – 2.5 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.5 | 2.2 – 2.8 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.8 | 2.5 – 3.3 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Q3’26 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.3 billion. | |||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,570 | 2,550 – 2,650 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 | 2.3 – 2.7 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be lower than Q2’26. | |||
Chemicals and Products
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Indicative refining margin* | $24/bbl | $42/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin* | $270/tonne | $208/tonne | |
| Refinery utilisation | 102% | 93% – 97% | Low Rhine water levels impacting Rheinland refinery utilisation. |
| Chemicals utilisation | 83% | 81% – 85% | |
| Underlying opex | 1.9 | 1.7 – 2.1 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.1 | 1.1 – 1.3 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | 0.6 | 1.0 – 1.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q2’26. | |||
*See appendix
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | 0.1 | 0.0 – 0.4 |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) | (0.8) – (0.6) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax paid | 2.9 | 3.1 – 3.9 | |
| Financial Derivative Instruments movements | (0.4) | 0 – 5 | |
| Other | 0.1 | (4) – 1 | CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an ~$2.5 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG*. |
| Working capital | 3.4 | (4) – 1 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | |||
| CFFO excluding working capital includes a $0.8 billion JV dividend inflow, which is offset by a $0.8 billion outflow through working capital (as funds were previously held in deposit by the corporate segment). The net impact on CFFO is zero. | |||
| Non-cash post tax impairments of biogas assets in Marketing are expected to be largely offset by an impairment reversal in Integrated Gas. Both are reported as identified items. | |||
| Net debt will be impacted by ARC acquisition cash consideration & assumption of debt and an increase in variable components of long-term shipping leases in the current macro environment. | |||
*Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (Fuel Emissions Trading Act), historically paid in the 4th quarter of each calender year
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities.
Consensus
The company compiled consensus, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on October 21, 2026.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
| Chemicals & Products | Q2’26 | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $24/bbl | $42/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $270/tonne | $208/tonne |
Volume Data
| Operational Metrics | Q2’26 | Q3’26 QPR Outlook | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 631 | 570 – 630* | 740 – 780 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.7 | 7.1 – 7.7 | 7.2 – 7.6 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,824 | 1,680 – 1,880 | 1,735 – 1,835 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,570 | 2,550 – 2,750 | 2,550 – 2,650 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 102% | 93% – 101% | 93% – 97% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 83% | 78% – 86% | 81% – 85% |
*Q3’26 QPR production outlook excluded volumes from ARC Resources and Qatar.
Underlying Opex
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. Underlying operating expenses comprises the following items from the Consolidated statement of Income: production and manufacturing expenses; selling, distribution and administrative expenses; and research and development expenses and removes the effects of identified items such as redundancy and restructuring charges or reversals, provisions or reversals and others.
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q2’26 Adjusted | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.5 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 2.9 | ||
| Research and development | 0.3 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 8.7 | 8.7 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.2 | ||
| Underlying Opex | 8.4 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 – 1.5 |
| Upstream | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 – 2.5 |
| Marketing | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 – 2.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 – 2.1 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q2’26 Adjusted | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 6.2 | 6.2 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.6 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.6 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 – 1.5 |
| Upstream | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 – 2.8 |
| Marketing | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 – 1.3 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Taxation Charge
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q2’26 Adjusted | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | 0.4 | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 4.5 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 – 0.9 |
| Upstream | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 – 3.3 |
| Marketing | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.5 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 – 1.5 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.1) | — |
Adjusted Earnings
The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest.
| $ billions | Q2’26 | Q2’26 Adjusted | Q3’26 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 10.8 | 10.8 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.6) | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 0.4 | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 9.8 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.6) | 0.1 | 0.0 – 0.4 |
| Corporate | (0.6) | (0.6) | (0.8) – (0.6) |
Working Capital
Working capital movements are defined as the sum of the following items in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: (i) (increase)/decrease in inventories, (ii) (increase)/decrease in current receivables, and (iii) increase/(decrease) in current payables.
Net Debt
Net debt is defined as the sum of current and non-current debt, less cash and cash equivalents, adjusted for the fair value of derivative financial instruments used to hedge foreign exchange and interest rate risks relating to debt, and associated collateral balances.
