Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE:TSE) has received a higher price target from Canaccord Genuity after a series of operational developments that the broker believes have strengthened the company’s organic growth outlook in Thailand.
In its latest research note from Canaccord Genuity, dated 24 September 2026, the broker maintained its BUY rating on Valeura Energy while increasing its target price to C$19.70 from C$17.20. The research note recorded Valeura’s share price at C$15.08.
Research Analyst Charlie Sharp, who is named on the research alongside Phil Hallam, summed up Canaccord’s assessment succinctly:
“Valeura is on a roll. Three recent announcements are, we think, significant steps forward.”
Those three developments are the approval of Valeura’s farm-ins to the G1/65 and G3/65 licences, the final investment decision for the Bussabong gas development and the Suraphi field discovery near the existing Manora operation.
New Thailand licences open up longer-term opportunities
Canaccord views approval of the G1/65 and G3/65 farm-ins as an important step for Valeura’s medium and longer-term growth plans.
PTTEP operates the licences with a 60% interest, while Valeura holds 40%. Although the areas remain at an early stage of evaluation, Canaccord says they have already demonstrated exploration, appraisal and development potential.
Valeura’s entry cost was also relatively limited, consisting principally of its share of back-costs, approximately US$26 million to the end of August, together with the full cost of certain 3D seismic work.
According to the broker, government approval took longer than it had expected, but the commercialisation process is now progressing quickly.
Bussabong becomes the first development on G3/65
The Bussabong gas development represents the first development to move ahead on Valeura’s new licence acreage.
The project was originally identified when the farm-in was announced in July 2025. Canaccord describes Bussabong as a relatively low-cost gas development, with some condensate production, and estimates Valeura’s net capital expenditure at around US$60 million.
First production is targeted for around the end of 2028.
Canaccord believes Bussabong could mark the beginning of a multi-phase development programme, with production tied into the nearby Bongkot gas field.
Suraphi discovery adds another potential development
Valeura has also recorded better-than-expected results from the Manora-9 well, located approximately 4.5 kilometres from the Manora-A platform.
Those results have led Canaccord to view the Suraphi discovery as a likely standalone development rather than simply a smaller tie-back opportunity.
The broker also sees potential for Valeura to apply experience gained from the Wassana redevelopment to Suraphi. In addition, the development could help reduce the risk attached to nearby opportunities, including the Malida discovery and further exploration targets.
Importantly, Canaccord believes Suraphi demonstrates that additional development opportunities can still emerge around Valeura’s more mature producing fields.
Valeura Energy financial and operational outlook
Canaccord’s estimates point to a business with substantial cash generation and a growing net cash position over the forecast period.
- 2026 estimated production: 21.7 kboe per day.
- 2026 estimated sales: US$618.7 million.
- 2026 estimated operating cash flow after tax: US$359.4 million.
- 2026 estimated year-end net cash: US$397.3 million.
- 2027 estimated production: 26.0 kboe per day.
- 2027 estimated sales: US$676.8 million.
- 2028 estimated year-end net cash: US$639.3 million.
The broker’s valuation also highlights the scale of Valeura’s existing asset base. Canaccord calculates a risked value of C$14.40 per share for the company’s core producing assets and financial position, rising to C$18.80 per share when development assets are included. Exploration increases its total risked valuation to C$19.70 per share.
Why Canaccord raised its Valeura Energy target price
Canaccord initially calculated an updated risked NPV10 valuation of C$18.60 per share after including the Bussabong and Suraphi developments.
The broker then increased its Brent crude assumptions by US$3 per barrel to align them more closely with forward pricing. Its assumptions now stand at US$86 per barrel for 2026, US$78 for 2027 and US$73 for 2028, resulting in the new C$19.70 target price.
There are still uncertainties. Canaccord notes that Bussabong requires greater clarity around its gas sales agreement and pricing, while Suraphi has not yet been sanctioned and still requires work on project scope, capital expenditure and timing.
The broker also identifies commodity prices, operational performance, decommissioning costs and Valeura’s concentration in Thailand as important risks.
Final Thoughts
Canaccord Genuity’s latest assessment of Valeura Energy reflects a company with several potential sources of organic growth alongside its existing producing assets.
Approval of the G1/65 and G3/65 farm-ins expands the longer-term opportunity set, Bussabong provides a defined new development project and Suraphi adds another potential standalone development close to existing infrastructure.
With those projects incorporated into its valuation and higher oil-price assumptions applied, Canaccord has raised its target price from C$17.20 to C$19.70 while retaining its BUY recommendation.
