Shell plc (LON:SHEL) has announced an update to the first quarter 2026 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the first quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual first quarter 2026 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on May 7, 2026. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
In light of the ongoing situation in the Middle East, the outlook provided is subject to increased uncertainty. For details see the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on Shell’s activities on shell.com.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Production (kboe/d) | 948 | 880 – 920 | Reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes. |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.8 | 7.6 – 8.0 | Reflects the ramp-up of LNG Canada, offset by Australia weather constraints and Qatar LNG outages. |
| Underlying opex | 1.2 | 1.1 – 1.3 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.5 | 1.3 – 1.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 | 0.4 – 0.7 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q4’25. Note: Long‑term LNG contracts usually have a pricing lag (e.g. JCC‑3). | |||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,892 | 1,760 – 1,860 | Includes reduced production following the Adura JV incorporation. |
| Underlying opex | 2.4 | 2.0 – 2.4 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.7 | 2.4 – 3.0 | |
| Taxation charge | 1.7 | 1.6 – 2.4 | Reflects the Nigeria onshore and UK portfolio changes since Q1’25. |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| – | |||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,701 | 2,550 – 2,650 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.6 | 2.2 – 2.6 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.4 | 0.4 – 0.7 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be significantly higher than Q1’25. | |||
Chemicals and Products
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Indicative refining margin* | $14/bbl | $17/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin* | $140/tonne | $139/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be at a similar level as Q1’25. |
| Refinery utilisation | 95% | 95% – 99% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 76% | 81% – 85% | |
| Underlying opex | 2.2 | 1.7 – 2.1 | |
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | 0.2 | 0.3 – 0.7 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly higher than Q4’25. | |||
*See appendix
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | 0.1 | 0.2 – 0.7 | Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly higher than Q4’25. |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) | (1.0) – (0.8) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax paid | 2.6 | 2.0 – 2.8 | |
| Financial Derivative Instruments movements | (0.1) | (1) – 4 | |
| Working capital | 1.3 | (15) – (10) | Reflects impact of unprecedented volatility in commodity prices on inventory and receivables. |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | |||
| Non-cash net-debt expected to be impacted by $3-4 billion increase in variable components of long-term shipping leases in the current macro environment. | |||
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities.
Consensus
The company compiled consensus, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on April 29, 2026.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
| Chemicals & Products | Q4’25 | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $14/bbl | $17/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $140/tonne | $139/tonne |
Volume Data
| Operational Metrics | Q4’25 | Q1’26 QPR Outlook | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 948 | 920 – 980 | 880 – 920 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.8 | 7.4 – 8.0 | 7.6 – 8.0 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,892 | 1,700 – 1.900 | 1,760 – 1,860 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,701 | 2,550 – 2,750 | 2,550 – 2,650 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 95% | 90% – 98% | 95% – 99% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 76% | 79% – 87% | 81% – 85% |
Underlying Opex
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2025 and full year unaudited results.
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q4’25 Adjusted | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.4 | ||
| Research and development | 0.3 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.6 | 9.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.1 | ||
| Underlying Opex | 9.4 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 – 1.3 |
| Upstream | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 – 2.4 |
| Marketing | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 – 2.6 |
| Chemicals and Products | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 – 2.1 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q4’25 Adjusted | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 6.6 | 6.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.8 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.8 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 – 1.7 |
| Upstream | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 – 3.0 |
| Marketing | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 – 1.0 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Taxation Charge
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q4’25 Adjusted | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.2) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 2.9 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 – 0.7 |
| Upstream | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 – 2.4 |
| Marketing | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 – 0.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | — | 0.2 | 0.3 – 0.7 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Adjusted Earnings
The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2025 and full year unaudited results.
| $ billions | Q4’25 | Q4’25 Adjusted | Q1’26 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 4.1 | 4.1 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 0.3 | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 1.2 | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 3.3 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.1) | 0.1 | 0.2 – 0.7 |
| Corporate | (0.6) | (0.6) | (1.0) – (0.8) |
Working Capital
Working capital movements are defined as the sum of the following items in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: (i) (increase)/decrease in inventories, (ii) (increase)/decrease in current receivables, and (iii) increase/(decrease) in current payables.
