What America’s populist cycles could mean for markets

RICA

Populism has repeatedly changed the direction of US economic policy. When voters lose confidence in established institutions, governments often respond with more intervention, institutional reform and policies aimed at shifting economic power.

These changes can affect regulation, public spending, financial stability and the balance of power between elected governments and independent institutions.
The pattern is not new.

Andrew Jackson’s presidency in the 1830s was built around opposition to political and financial elites. His most important economic move was to block the recharter of the Second Bank of the United States.

Jackson believed the bank gave too much influence to wealthy interests. Federal deposits were redirected to state-chartered banks, which then expanded lending. Credit growth and speculation increased, helping set the stage for the crash of 1837 and the depression that followed. Policies designed to weaken concentrated financial power can create new risks elsewhere in the system.

Populism returned later in the nineteenth century as American farmers faced falling prices, debt pressure, mechanisation and international competition.

The Populist Party pushed for political reform and challenged the gold standard. It supported the free coinage of silver, which was intended to expand the money supply, raise prices and reduce the real burden of debt. The party failed to win the presidency, but several of its political ideas later became part of the US system. Populist movements do not need to win outright to influence policy.

The same pattern appeared again after the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

High unemployment, bank failures and economic inequality created support for a much larger role for government. Franklin D Roosevelt responded with the New Deal, higher public spending, progressive taxation and stronger labour protections. He also pushed against institutional limits. His attempt to expand the Supreme Court failed, but it showed how periods of political pressure can bring conflict between elected leaders and established institutions.

These episodes share several features.

Economic stress creates pressure for change. Political movements then target institutions seen as protecting the existing order. Policy becomes more interventionist, and governments become more willing to challenge established constraints.

Today’s concerns around inequality, globalisation, migration, technology and distrust of political institutions have clear historical parallels.

Modern communication also accelerates the process. Earlier populist leaders used railways and radio to reach voters directly. Today, social media performs the same role faster and at greater scale.

Populist governments may favour higher spending, more redistribution and tighter regulation. They may also challenge central banks, courts, legislatures and other institutions if those bodies are seen as blocking the political mandate. That can increase uncertainty around policy direction and make economic outcomes harder to assess.

History also shows that the effects can last beyond one election cycle. Some reforms disappear. Others become permanent parts of the political and economic system. The key point is not that populism is automatically negative. It is that it often increases the scope for substantial policy change.

Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) is a British investment company dedicated to investments in internationally listed or quoted equities or equity related securities

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