Taylor Wimpey warns on profits as 2026 housebuilding forecast falls to 10,500 homes

TW

Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW) has issued a trading update for the period to date for the year ending 31 December 2026.

Jennie Daly, Chief Executive, commented:

“The Autumn selling season has been more subdued, as higher mortgage rates and living costs continue to reduce customer affordability. We now expect 2026 UK completions excluding joint ventures to be around 10,500 homes and Group adjusted operating profit* to be around the bottom end of the consensus range†.

We remain focused on supporting customers, operating efficiently, maintaining our strong balance sheet and progressing our strategy, and are on track to open more outlets this year, with progress reflecting our early proactive approach to planning.

We welcome the Government’s Your First Home Scheme to support getting people onto the property ladder. Our strong first time buyer proposition and growing outlet base position us well as the scheme develops.”

UK trading

The housing market has remained challenging during the Autumn selling season with increasing mortgage rates placing further pressure on affordability during this period.

The net private sales rate per outlet per week for the period from 29 June to 8 November 2026 was 0.60 (2025: 0.63), with a cancellation rate of 17% (2025: 17%). Excluding the impact of bulk deals, we achieved a net private sales rate of 0.54 (2025: 0.61) in the period.

For the year to date, we have achieved a net private sales rate of 0.69 (2025: 0.72), with a cancellation rate of 15% (2025: 16%). Excluding the impact of bulk deals, our net private sales rate for the year to date was 0.62 (2025: 0.68).

Our order book excluding joint ventures as at 8 November 2026 stood at 6,839 homes (2025: 7,253 homes), with a value of c.£1,984 million (2025: c.£2,116 million).

Pricing continues to reflect the subdued market conditions, with further marginal softening, and incentives remain elevated as previously communicated. We continue to expect build cost inflation of 3-4% for full year 2026.

Execution against our strategy to drive value from our strong landbank is progressing well, increasing our outlet base without net land investment. Our early action to capture the opportunities arising from planning reform continues to support this growth. We are currently operating from 225 outlets, up c.9% year on year (2025: 206), reflecting good progress. Year to date, we have operated from an average of 220 outlets (2025: 208) and opened 59 new outlets (2025: 51). We remain on track to open more outlets in 2026 than in 2025 and to deliver year on year growth in average outlets.

We also remain proactive in managing the cost base across our business and are focused on delivering further efficiencies to protect value given the current trading environment.

Land and planning

We remain highly selective in landbuying and in the year to date have approved c.5k plots (2025: c.5k) focusing on smaller sites in line with our medium term strategy. Our short term landbank reduced to c.73k plots as at the end of October 2026 (28 June 2026: c.75k plots), reflecting our targeted reduction in landbank length and focus on capital efficiency. 

We are seeing some positive outcomes from our proactive actions to liberate our strategic pipeline. In the year to date, we have seen a marked increase in conversions from our strategic pipeline to c.5k plots (2025: c.2k plots). Our strategic land pipeline stood at c.131k potential plots as at the end of October (28 June 2026: c.132k potential plots).

Your First Home

We welcome the introduction of Your First Home in supporting first time buyers’ access onto the property ladder. We look forward to further detail from Government, including on funding allocation and scheme implementation. With our strong first time buyer proposition and growing outlet base, we are well positioned to participate as the scheme develops.

Outlook

Reflecting current trading activity, we now anticipate 2026 UK completions excluding joint ventures will be around 10,500 homes, with Group adjusted operating profit expected to be around the bottom end of the consensus range†.

We continue to expect to end the year with c.£250 million of net cash‡, subject to the timing of land purchases in the remainder of the year. This net cash position is after the return of c.£240 million to shareholders in 2026 through both dividends and share buybacks.

Whilst affordability challenges continue to impact near term demand, we continue to deliver progress on the operational priorities within our control. Our well-located landbank, strong balance sheet and operational discipline position us to deliver profitable growth as market conditions improve.

Share buyback programme

We have made good progress with our previously announced share buyback programme, and as at close of business on 6 November 2026 have purchased c.39 million shares, equating to c.£31.5 million of the planned £41.9 million programme which we continue to expect to complete no later than 31 December 2026.

Notes

† As published on 6 November 2026, the Company compiled consensus range for full year 2026 Group adjusted operating profit (including joint ventures and excluding exceptional items) is £262 million to £299 million.

* Adjusted operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before financing, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.

‡ Net cash is defined as total cash less total borrowings.

2025 relates to 2025 equivalent trading period, unless stated otherwise.

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