Ecommerce is changing quickly in 2026 as AI starts to influence product discovery, marketplaces take a larger share of online sales and cross-border trading becomes more expensive.
Global retail ecommerce is forecast to reach $5.25 trillion this year, up 13% from 2025, with online sales expected to represent 25% of total global retail value. Digital sales are responsible for around 80% of the absolute increase in global retail value, making online channels a major source of retail growth.
The biggest change is the way shoppers find products. AI platforms currently generate only around 2% of referral traffic to ecommerce websites, but that figure is growing rapidly. AI-driven referrals increased 302% during 2025, compared with 40% growth from all other referral sources combined. In the first half of 2026, AI referrals increased a further 128%, while other referral sources grew by just 0.8%.
Consumers are increasingly able to ask AI systems what they should buy rather than starting with a traditional search engine. Product descriptions, pricing, availability and other information therefore need to be sufficiently clear for AI systems to understand and recommend products.
The change could also favour businesses with strong product data and broad ranges. AI-led shopping makes it possible for consumers to compare products through a single interface, potentially shifting traffic away from individual retailer websites and towards platforms that can aggregate products and complete transactions.
Marketplaces are already taking a large share of ecommerce. The five largest ecommerce platforms accounted for 47% of retail ecommerce value in 2025, while four of the world’s five largest retailers were ecommerce platforms or marketplaces.
That concentration is likely to remain significant as AI becomes another route into online shopping. Large marketplaces already have extensive product ranges, customer data, established fulfilment networks and high levels of consumer usage. Those advantages can make them well positioned as shopping moves towards AI-assisted recommendations.
Europe is already seeing strong growth in AI-driven ecommerce referrals. The region accounted for 38% of global AI referrals to ecommerce websites in 2025, with referrals increasing 176% year-on-year during the first half of 2026. The UK recorded the highest share of AI referrals in Europe, followed by Germany and Spain.
itim Group plc (LON:ITIM) is a SaaS-based technology company that enables store-based retailers to optimise their businesses to improve financial performance and effectively compete with online competitors. Itim adds retail value by helping multi-channel retailers optimise their business and their stores to improve financial performance and compete more effectively with the “Amazons”.
