Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) has announced its Monthly Investment Report for May 2026:
May continued where April left off. Attention remained focused on the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing melt-up in the AI trade. Despite the volatile news flow, the oil price tumbled by nearly 20% as investors ended May more hopeful for a sustainable resolution to the conflict. It was another healthy month for global equities, with the S&P 500 posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain at the end of the period. Markets were led yet again by the beneficiaries of vast AI-related investment, best illustrated by the performance of semiconductor and memory stocks. The portfolio’s equities contributed positively over the month, led by its Japanese exposure, but faced a headwind from its holdings of Chinese tech companies, which fell over the month. Given the broadly favourable environment for risk assets during May, the largest detractor from performance came from the protective derivative positions.
It was a volatile month for global bond markets, as inflation concerns – stemming from the conflict in the Middle East – intensified before easing as the oil price later retreated. We added modestly to our existing exposure to long-dated Japanese government bonds after the 30-year yield breached 4%. The gilt market endured acute worries of its own, as the embattled prime minister faces mounting pressure from his own party after dismal local election results. Despite the press fervour, a change of leadership is far from certain, and it is a risk we are monitoring. Should Starmer be forced out, a plausible scenario is a shift further to the left on economic policy, which could weigh on the fiscal outlook and, in turn, on gilts. The additions we have made to bonds this year have been opportunistic, where we felt sufficient value has emerged. We remain convinced that the bedrock role bonds served in investor portfolios over prior decades is now over, and we continue to search for additional, more reliable sources of diversification and protection.
Elsewhere, we added 5% to the fund’s US dollar exposure and increased our positions across a selection of agricultural commodities, seeking to reinforce the portfolio’s resilience should the oil price rise. These changes complement our existing exposure to energy and to derivatives. With both Iran and the US reluctant to be seen backing down, the stand-off is likely to persist. Oil inventories have so far been drawn down more slowly than analysts had expected, but they continue to diminish. We see a meaningful risk that energy prices move higher from here. Any sustained rise would, in time, bring its own demand destruction and pain for financial markets. The portfolio is positioned to protect should that risk come to pass.
