For much of the globalisation era, falling labour costs helped create a favourable backdrop for corporate profitability. Greater cross-border movement of workers increased labour supply, allowing staff costs to decline as a proportion of company turnover across many industries. Combined with changes in energy, raw material and capital equipment costs, this contributed to stronger margins and cash generation over an extended period.
That environment may now be changing. Tighter immigration policies, more frequent industrial disputes and greater pressure for wage increases suggest that labour costs could become a more persistent burden on corporate margins. Some companies have responded by pursuing efficiency improvements and reducing headcount, but unemployment has also begun to rise even as immigration is constrained.
This creates a more complicated economic backdrop. Central banks have cut interest rates despite inflation remaining above target in some cases, reflecting concerns about slowing economic activity and employment. Governments also face constraints after running large budget deficits following Covid. A sharp increase in unemployment could raise welfare spending at a time when public finances are already stretched, potentially limiting the ability to support other areas of expenditure.
Premier Miton UK Multi Cap Fund‘s objective is to provide an income with capital growth over the long-term, being five years or more.
