The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (LON:BKG) is holding its Annual General Meeting today, at which it will provide the following Trading Update covering the period from 1 May 2026 to 31 August 2026.
“On 1 April this year, Berkeley announced a re-phasing of its strategic delivery over the next four years to reflect the deterioration in the economic outlook that accompanied the emerging conflict in the Middle East, reducing production by around 25% over this period with our focus on cash generation, ahead of short-term profit targets.
Since the start of the current financial year, with the conflict continuing for longer than initially anticipated and ongoing political change and uncertainty in the UK, sentiment and core economic indicators have been further impacted, with a consequential effect on trading and general housing market activity. While Berkeley is receiving good and stable levels of enquiries, the uncertainty and volatility in the market means that customers without an immediate need to move and readily available liquidity remain more cautious to commit, a position similar to that reported with our full year results in June.
In this environment, we continue to operate within our four-year £1.4 billion pre-tax profit plan. The profile will be broadly even over this period, with fluctuations driven by market demand. We are however mindful that some buyers may defer transactions until after the Budget at the end of October and any election uncertainty dissipates. At this stage, we anticipate pre-tax profits to be slightly weighted towards the first half of the current financial year, subject to the timing of completions.
During the first four months of the year, we returned £60 million to shareholders through the acquisition of 1.7 million shares at an average price of £34.18 per share. The current target to meet the Berkeley 2035 shareholder return target is a total of £640 million from October 2025 to 30 September 2030. We have to date bought back a total of £171 million towards this target and are therefore ahead of the required run rate.
We expect net cash to be in the region of £250 million for the half year, reflecting the level of shareholder returns along with investment in the core business and Build to rent platform. From the end of FY27 onwards, the decisions taken to reduce our commitment to new phases and pausing land investment will drive improved net cashflow enabling us to either increase investment into the business once conditions support this or increase shareholder returns in the meantime.
We are encouraged by the Government’s recognition of the importance of home-building in driving economic growth across the nation. New housing presents a tremendous opportunity for the Government. It provides skilled jobs, apprenticeships, economic growth and much needed homes, all while contributing huge amounts of tax in the context of stretched public finances.
To meet the Government’s target of 300,000 new homes per annum, and help address the cost-of-living crisis by making homes more affordable, the current stamp duty (“SDLT”) regime, that was introduced at a time when interest rates were 0.25%, requires urgent reform. What was a manageable frictional cost when interest rates were at those unique and unsustainable levels, has become a binding constraint, now that interest rates have returned to more normal levels. Far more tax revenue is being lost through depressed activity than is being gained through SDLT on new build homes as set out by HMRC’s own assessment. The OBR has historically estimated that for every 1% cut in SDLT, transactions may increase by up to 6%.
Accordingly we have put forward to Government that it considers a targeted intervention to support the new build sector and (i) cap SDLT at 1% for First Time Buyers; (ii) cap SDLT for downsizers at 1%; and (iii) remove the 5% investor surcharge. Collectively, this supports people buying their first home, frees up more family homes, and provides more homes for rent. Increasing transactions of all kinds will facilitate significantly higher rates of housing delivery of all tenures, including the critical affordable housing that is delivered alongside new private homes, and that would otherwise not come forward.
To achieve a sustainable increase in housing supply, Berkeley fully supports the Government’s planning reforms in London; the priority now is implementation. The Homes for London package and the updated National Planning Policy Framework are clearly designed to reduce regulatory cost, speed up the system and get stalled sites into construction; essential pre-requisites to kick-start supply on brownfield sites.
Berkeley is making good progress advancing its sites through this reformed planning system, to secure deliverable and viable planning consents. However, we still need to see more consistency, and the pro-development stance seen in policy making also adopted in decision making.
Berkeley’s business model can be a major catalyst for growth, delivering hugely positive outcomes for communities, the economy and environment through ambitious brownfield regeneration projects. We are committed to working with all levels of Government and other stakeholders to unlock this potential for the benefit of all.”
