What the 1987 crash still teaches about market risk

RICA

The market crash of 1987 and a major cryptocurrency liquidation nearly four decades later were very different events. But the forces that made both episodes so severe were familiar: leverage, derivatives and automated trading. Markets evolve, but the mechanics of a sell-off often do not.

Leverage can make markets more fragile because it forces investors to act when losses reach certain levels. A leveraged position does not always have the luxury of waiting for prices to recover. If losses become too large, the position may need to be reduced or closed. That creates more selling, which can push prices lower and force other leveraged participants to do the same. The result can be a chain reaction.

Derivatives can add to that pressure. They are widely used for hedging, managing exposure and improving capital efficiency, but they can also increase the links between different positions and market participants. When prices move quickly, those connections matter. Actions taken to reduce risk in one part of the market can create fresh pressure elsewhere.

Automated trading can then increase the speed of the move. Computer-driven strategies can react to price changes almost instantly. In normal conditions, that speed can help markets operate efficiently. During periods of stress, it can also mean that large volumes of buying or selling happen within a very short period.

The comparison with 1987 is useful because the technology has changed far more than the underlying risks.

In 1987, trading strategies linked to portfolio insurance were part of a market structure that could reinforce falling prices. In modern crypto markets, highly leveraged positions, derivatives and automated liquidation mechanisms can produce a similar effect. The assets are different, but the feedback loop is recognisable.

A market can appear stable until a combination of leverage, falling prices and forced selling exposes weaknesses that were not obvious beforehand. Low volatility can also encourage participants to take larger positions, increasing the potential impact when conditions change. It is important to understand how positions are financed, how much leverage is being used, what could trigger forced selling and how quickly automated systems may respond.

Financial innovation does not remove market risk. In some cases, it can change the way that risk appears and increase the speed at which it develops. Periods of severe market stress are rarely caused by one factor alone. They often result from several pressures reinforcing each other at the same time. Leverage can create forced sellers, derivatives can connect risks across markets and automated systems can accelerate the adjustment.

Ruffer Investment Company Limited (LON:RICA) is a British investment company dedicated to investments in internationally listed or quoted equities or equity related securities

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