Markets shrugged off political theatre and macro uncertainty to finish 2025 at record highs — but Craig Farley says the real story sits beneath the surface. In this conversation, the TEAM plc (LON:TEAM) Chief Investment Officer explains how a barbell equity approach, zero exposure to long-dated government debt, and a decisive allocation to precious metals powered 20 percent plus sterling returns. He also outlines why AI capex maths may not stack up, why Trump’s revived Monroe-style doctrine changes the geopolitical playbook, and how a second inflation wave could emerge just as investors grow complacent.
Key Moments
00:30 – 2025 described as a year of stock market resilience despite US political drama
01:05 – TEAM delivers 20%+ sterling returns across conservative, balanced and growth strategies
01:40 – Early signs of AI fatigue and scrutiny of hyperscaler capex
02:00 – Introduction of the “Don Roe doctrine” and its implications for foreign policy
04:29 – $45bn AI revenues versus $650bn capex raises valuation concerns
04:49 – Japan carry trade unwind risk and potential global spillovers
05:40 – Prospect of unconventional US stimulus ahead of midterms
06:07 – Increasing allocation to UK large caps amid style rotation
07:16 – Portfolio positioning for 2026: tilt away from US mega-cap tech
08:00 – Zero exposure to long-term government debt remains core stance
TEAM plc is an international wealth, asset management and financial services group offering multi-asset investment solutions designed to grow and preserve client capital over the long term.
