BP Plc (LON:BP.) has provided a summary of its current estimates and expectations for the second quarter of 2026, including data on the economic environment and group performance during the period. The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the second quarter 2026 and is not an estimate of those results.
Updated 2Q26 guidance
Earnings considerations for 2Q 2026 underlying RC profit before interest and tax, relative to 1Q 2026:
• Reported upstream production in the second quarter is expected to be 2,170 to 2,220mboe/d (1Q 2026: 2,339mboe/d) due to seasonal maintenance predominantly in the Gulf of America and the effects of disruption in the Middle East. Within this,
◦ gas & low carbon energy is expected to be 750 to 770mboe/d (1Q 2026: 798mboe/d).
◦ oil production & operations is expected to be 1,420 to 1,450mboe/d (1Q 2026: 1,541mboe/d).
• Gas & low carbon energy segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of +$0.5 to 0.7 billion. These include the impact of price lags and the changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be broadly flat compared with the first quarter.
• Oil production & operations segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of +$1.8 to 2.1 billion, including the impact of the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE. Exploration write-offs are expected to be around $(0.5) billion this quarter, primarily reflecting the impact of the sale of Bay du Nord in Canada.
• Customers & products segment: compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to reflect the following factors:
◦ customers – seasonally higher volumes, higher fuels margins and broadly flat integrated midstream performance.
◦ products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of +$1.2 to 1.4 billion. We expect throughput of 1,445 to 1,475mb/d (1Q 2026: 1,527mb/d), reflecting higher planned turnaround activity and lower Whiting volumes following the April third-party event. The oil trading result is expected to be slightly higher compared with the first quarter.
Other financial considerations for 2Q 2026
• The group underlying effective tax rate for the second quarter is expected to be between 33% and 37%, due to the geographical mix of profits.
• Net debt at the end of the second quarter is expected to be in the range of $22 to 23 billion (1Q 2026: $25.3 billion). This reduction is after:
◦ the payment of $2.9 billion to redeem the €2.5 billion perpetual hybrid bonds on 22 June 2026 in line with plans to reduce hybrids by $4.3 billion by end 2027. Remaining hybrid bonds are expected to be around $13 billion at 2Q26 (1Q 2026: $16.0 billion); and
◦ the payment for $1.1 billion Gulf of America settlement liabilities, which contributes to an expected working capital build in the range of $0 to 1.5 billion.
As a result, we expect the total of net debt, hybrids and Gulf of America settlement liabilities to reduce by around $6.3 to 7.3 billion compared with the first quarter.
• The second quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments of around $1.0 billion. These charges are primarily attributable to transition businesses in the gas & low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit before interest and tax, underlying effective tax rate, net debt, and working capital (after adjusting for inventory holding gains or losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) are non-IFRS measures.
Trading conditions and rules of thumb
The marker prices and margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realized by bp during the given periods.
• Brent averaged $103.85/bbl in the second quarter 2026 compared to $81.13/bbl in the first quarter 2026.
• US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $2.90/mmBtu in the second quarter 2026 compared to $5.05/mmBtu in the first quarter 2026.
• The bp RIM averaged $29.6/bbl in the second quarter 2026 compared to $16.9/bbl in the first quarter 2026.
Rules of thumb below are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on bp’s 2026 full-year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon bp’s current portfolio of oil and gas businesses. The weighting of the rules of thumb for Brent and Henry Hub is an approximate split of 80% to oil production & operations and 20% to gas & low carbon energy.
The relationship between prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil and gas prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, hedge positions and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results. Hedging activity impacts the Henry Hub rule of thumb and as a result should not be treated as representative of the longer-term sensitivity.
Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of oil and gas revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels.
The bp Refining Indicator Margin rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, actual margins realized by bp may vary due to a variety of factors, including the actual mix of a crude and product for a given quarter. Under the current market conditions, and resulting heightened volatility in commodity and refined product prices, crude differentials, transportation costs and product mix may vary significantly. See Refining Indicator Margin link for more information.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Rules of thumb
| Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2026 | Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit |
| Oil priceaBrent +/- $1/bbl | $340m |
| Natural gas priceaHenry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu | $40m |
| Refining indicator marginRIM +/- $ 1/bbl | $550m |
a. Combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy.
