US natural gas prices are being pulled in two directions. Production remains high, but stronger summer demand, LNG exports and short-term supply disruptions continue to support the market.
Natural gas futures moved higher after daily production across the Lower 48 states fell sharply over two days. Estimated output dropped by about 3 billion cubic feet per day to 108.9 billion cubic feet per day, its lowest level in two weeks. Most of the decline came from Louisiana and Arkansas.
The fall in daily output provided immediate support to prices, but it did not change the wider supply picture. Average production had already reached about 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in early April, above March levels and the previous monthly record set in December 2025.
This creates a market where short-term production changes can move futures, even when overall supply remains strong. Temporary outages, maintenance or regional disruptions may tighten the market for a limited period, but sustained price strength will depend on demand absorbing continued production growth.
The Energy Information Administration expects US dry natural gas production to rise from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 110 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. Output is then forecast to increase again to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2027.
Domestic demand is expected to remain broadly stable. Consumption is forecast at 91.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 before easing slightly in 2027. This means export growth will play a larger role in balancing the market.
US LNG exports are projected to increase from 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 16.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. That growth could absorb a meaningful share of additional production and improve the market’s ability to handle rising supply.
Diversified Energy Company plc (LON:DEC, NYSE:DEC) is an independent energy company engaged in the production, marketing, transportation and retirement of primarily natural gas and natural gas liquids related to its U.S. onshore upstream and midstream assets.
