China’s 60 trillion yuan consumption target sharpens market focus

Fidelity China Special Situations

Chinese shares rose after strong export data and a new government consumption target improved market sentiment.

The Shanghai market gained 1.4%, while Shenzhen rose 2.8%. The rebound followed a fall to a three-month low and was strongest among companies more closely linked to domestic growth and consumer demand.

China has approved a plan targeting around 60 trillion yuan in annual retail sales by 2030. The policy is intended to increase the contribution of household spending to the economy and reduce reliance on exports and property-related growth.

The target gives the market a clearer view of the government’s priorities for the next five-year planning period. Consumer goods, services, retail, travel, healthcare and other domestic demand sectors could receive more policy attention as China seeks to encourage households to spend more.

The plan is expected to focus on household spending power, service availability and the wider consumer environment. This could include measures linked to incomes, retail infrastructure, product standards and consumer protection.

A long-term target does not automatically create stronger demand. The effect on company revenues and earnings will depend on the size, timing and detail of the policies introduced.
Markets will therefore look for evidence that the government is prepared to support household confidence and disposable income. Without effective measures, consumers may remain cautious and the impact of the target could be limited.

Strong export figures provided more immediate support. China recorded a trade surplus of $125.6 billion in June, showing that overseas demand remains an important source of economic strength. The export data and consumption plan point to a two-part growth strategy. Trade continues to support activity in the near term, while domestic spending is being positioned as a larger driver of future growth.

Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (LON:FCSS), the UK’s largest China Investment Trust, capitalises on Fidelity’s extensive, locally-based analyst team to find attractive opportunities in a market too big to ignore.

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