Criterium Energy Ltd. (TSX:CEQ) looks to be entering an important new phase, according to the latest research note from Research Capital Corporation, which maintained its Speculative Buy rating and C$0.20 target price on the shares. The note points to a stronger reserve base, a more meaningful gas weighting, and a clearer path towards cash flow growth as key reasons for its constructive stance on the business.
At the centre of the story is a sizeable uplift in reserves and resources. Research Capital said Criterium’s estimated 2P reserves rose 70% year on year to 7.7 MMboe at year-end 2025. That increase was driven mainly by new gas reserves at Southeast Mengoepeh, or SE-MGH, after successful testing and the removal of commercial contingencies, alongside the addition of North Mengoepeh, or N-MGH, following successful production testing of existing wells. The broker also highlighted new contingent oil resources from the Mengoepeh waterflood and the Lemat formation, which lifted total 2C oil resources to 13.6 MMbbl.
One of the clearest takeaways from the note is that Criterium is becoming more gas-focused. Research Capital said the updated reserve base is now 55% gas-weighted on a 2P basis, reflecting what it described as a strategic pivot towards gas commercialisation. That matters because SE-MGH remains the near-term anchor project, with first gas still expected in Q2 2026 and an initial plateau rate of 5 to 7 MMcf/d over roughly six years.
Bill Newman, CFA, summed up the broker’s view clearly, writing, “We view the 2025 reserve report as a clear positive.” He also wrote that “SE-MGH remains on track for first natural gas production in Q2/26,” which underlines why this project is being treated as such an important near-term catalyst.
There is also more depth to the development pipeline than just one field. At N-MGH, Research Capital said Criterium booked 5 Bcf of new reserves, with production expected to begin in Q1 2027 through a pipeline tie-in to the SE-MGH infrastructure. Management expects that field to contribute 2 to 3 MMcf/d of incremental production. Macan Gedang adds another layer of potential, with 12.6 Bcf of contingent gas resources classified as development pending, and regulatory approvals expected to be advanced in 2026 ahead of targeted development in 2027.
From a valuation perspective, the broker’s argument is that the market is not fully reflecting this growth runway. Research Capital calculated a core NAV of about C$36.1 million, or C$0.26 per share, based on after-tax 2P reserves of C$68.1 million and estimated net debt of roughly C$32.0 million. Including risked contingent resources at Tungkal, the broker estimated total risked NAV at approximately C$0.58 per share, well above the share price referenced in the note.
The note also suggested that stronger oil prices could give Criterium more room to move. Research Capital said the company realised an estimated premium of around US$3 per barrel to Brent in 2025, and that trend had continued into 2026. At production of roughly 965 barrels per day, the broker believes stronger pricing can make a noticeable difference to cash flow and improve financial flexibility.
Key points from the latest research note:
- 2P reserves increased 70% year on year to 7.7 MMboe.
- SE-MGH field size increased 40% to 21 Bcf, with first gas targeted for Q2 2026.
- N-MGH added 5 Bcf of reserves, with first production anticipated in Q1 2027.
- Total 2C oil resources reached 13.6 MMbbl.
- Research Capital maintained a Speculative Buy rating and C$0.20 target price.
Final Thoughts, the latest research note from Research Capital Corporation presents a measured but positive case for Criterium Energy. The core message is not about hype, but about tangible progress, reserve growth, clearer commercial visibility and a potentially more balanced production mix as gas comes onstream. For investors following smaller energy names, Criterium appears to be moving from promise towards execution, with SE-MGH likely to be the key milestone to watch over the coming quarters.
