Afentra plc (LON:AET) has moved into an interesting new phase, according to the latest research note from Cavendish, which argues that the company now has a clearer path to near term growth after securing funding support from Angola’s national oil company, Sonangol. The note reiterates a Buy recommendation and lifts the target price to 107p from 102p, compared with a share price of 79.8p at the time of publication, implying 34% upside.
The central development is a funding arrangement that allows Afentra to accelerate a two well drilling campaign on offshore licence 3/05 in Angola. Pacassa SW is expected to start first, with drilling due to begin within days of the note, while Impala is expected to follow. Crucially, Sonangol will cover Afentra’s upfront share of well costs, with repayment only from field cash flows if commercial discoveries are made. Cavendish says the funding is interest free and that there is no recourse to Afentra if the wells are dry. That is an unusually supportive structure and one that materially reduces financial risk around the campaign.
In the latest research note from Cavendish, analyst James Midgley wrote, “The two-well campaign, therefore, could boost group production by as much as 50% over the coming months.”
That line captures why the note takes a constructive view. Afentra’s group production averaged around 6,200 barrels of oil per day in 2025, and Cavendish had expected output to remain around similar levels through 2026, supported by infill drilling and workovers. If Pacassa SW and Impala are successful, however, the potential uplift is meaningful. Pacassa SW is anticipated to add around 1,650 barrels per day net to Afentra, while Impala could contribute roughly 1,330 to 1,350 barrels per day net.
The Pacassa SW prospect appears especially important because it can be drilled from the existing Pacassa F4 platform and, if successful, tied back quickly to existing production facilities. Cavendish notes that the structure is well defined on 3D seismic, with up to 210 million barrels of gross oil initially in place and a 60% geological chance of success. The well is expected to take around 80 to 90 days to drill, and first oil could arrive in the third quarter of this year if the result is positive.
Impala also adds weight to the longer term story. The field is already producing from one mature well, but Cavendish says much of the structure remains untapped. The planned Impala-2 well is expected to produce at initial rates of around 4,000 barrels per day gross, or roughly 1,330 barrels per day net to Afentra. On Cavendish’s assumptions, first oil from Impala-2 could be possible in the fourth quarter of 2026 if it is drilled after Pacassa SW.
The broker has also updated its valuation to reflect these opportunities. It now assigns a risked value of 7.6p per share to Pacassa SW and 6.8p per share to Impala, taking core NAV to 107.1p per share. Cavendish has not included any additional valuation uplift from the company’s ongoing strategic review, which means any corporate activity or financing outcome from that process sits outside the current base case.
Financially, Cavendish forecasts a strong step up in 2026, with revenue of $229.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $159.5 million and adjusted EPS of 41.26 cents, compared with 2025 estimates of $114.4 million, $52.0 million and 7.11 cents respectively. That helps explain why the broker continues to see a favourable risk reward balance at current levels.
Final Thoughts
Afentra Plc’s latest update appears to mark more than a routine operational step. With Sonangol removing the main funding and rig availability constraints, the company now has a realistic chance to bring forward two potentially meaningful wells without taking on the same level of upfront financial strain. Cavendish’s latest research note suggests that, while drilling risk still remains, the combination of funded activity, possible production growth and an ongoing strategic review gives Afentra several routes to create value over the coming months.
