GBPEUR – DirectorsTalk Interviews https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com LSE London Stock Exchange PLC Company Interviews Wed, 28 Oct 2015 08:55:18 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 GBPEUR Pound Sterling to Euro: Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole all expecting 1.4280ish https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/gbpeur-sterling-vs-euro-credit-suisse-bnp-paribas-and-credit-agricole-all-expecting-1-4280ish/412682080 Wed, 28 Oct 2015 08:44:13 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=682080 GBP (Pound Sterling) Sterling looked like it was staging a comeback. Indeed, the delaying of interest rate hike expectations to as far out as 16 months from now was probably a bit overdone. Granted, we’re not going to raise any time soon, but we’re not in that bad shape. As a result we weren’t surprised ...

This article GBPEUR Pound Sterling to Euro: Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole all expecting 1.4280ish was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP (Pound Sterling)
Sterling looked like it was staging a comeback. Indeed, the delaying of interest rate hike expectations to as far out as 16 months from now was probably a bit overdone. Granted, we’re not going to raise any time soon, but we’re not in that bad shape. As a result we weren’t surprised to see a mild rally in the pound against the likes of the euro and dollar. Indeed, I think it’s likely to continue against the euro, so euro sellers should take advantage of any dips, however after looking like GBPUSD wanted to consolidate in the upper half of the 1.50s, we’re back below 1.53, not helped by yesterday’s lower than expected GDP reading.

 
USD (US Dolar)
It’s Fed day today, and there isn’t much data from anywhere else. Even the most hawkish of analysts don’t expect the Fed to actually move today after the most recent huge miss in Non-Farm Payrolls data. More likely, is that this announcement, and the following statement will be taken as an opportunity to prepare the market for a December hike, if one is even to be made this year. Yellen did say that markets should prepare themselves for a 2015 hike, however that was before employment data took a nosedive. The dollar has firmed up these last few days, pushing EURUSD nearer 1.10 and GBPUSD below 1.53. New Home Sales, Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence have been the only releases of note so far this week, and all have disappointed versus analysts’ expectations. After today we have GDP, Pending Home Sales, Employment Cost Index, Core PCE and Personal Spending for the rest of the week. Data just released showed that investment banking had a terrible quarter to end September, especially on Wall Street with revenues from fixed income, currencies and commodities down 23% -watch your spreads if you still use your bank.

 
EUR (European Central Currency)
German Ifo Business Climate met expectations on Monday, and the M3 Money Supply was broadly as expected yesterday. Draghi put paid to any short term euro strength with his comments that the ECB were indeed prepared to print more money and even consider further rate cuts deeper into negative territory if required. The current wave of cheap cash in the form of QE has undoubtedly boosted equities in the region and helped narrow credit spreads, particularly in peripheral nations – refreshingly it’s been a while since anyone has mentioned Greece. However, there’s very little evidence that QE has filtered through into increased credit availability for individuals and businesses. CPI, Unemployment and Retail Sales are up the rest of the week, but nothing today. Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole all have positions in GBPEUR expecting 1.4280ish in the near term. Similarly, we see six major institutions with considerable positions in EURUSD, all expecting below 1.10.

 

Forex News – UK Pound Sterling, US Dollar and EUR single currency commentary provided by Argentex

This article GBPEUR Pound Sterling to Euro: Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole all expecting 1.4280ish was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Brexit talks and GBP Sterling, US Dollar, Euro Currency https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/brexit-talks-and-gbp-sterling-us-dollar-euro-currency/412677437 Tue, 08 Sep 2015 08:09:38 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=677437 GBP The media are starting to talk more and more about a Brexit. The current attention paid to the plight of asylum seekers both by the media themselves and by social media armchair warriors will add fuel to the fire stoked by the not inconsiderable 3.8 million people who voted for UKIP in the last ...

This article Brexit talks and GBP Sterling, US Dollar, Euro Currency was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
The media are starting to talk more and more about a Brexit. The current attention paid to the plight of asylum seekers both by the media themselves and by social media armchair warriors will add fuel to the fire stoked by the not inconsiderable 3.8 million people who voted for UKIP in the last general election. ING thinks that this could be the perfect storm that leads to a Brexit – a poll earlier in the year showed that just 23% of Britons have a ‘generally positive’ view of the EU – only Greece scores lower at 22%. Former Greek finance minister Varoufakis is coming to London to ‘debate’ left wing politics and the evils of austerity with Corbyn and a load of other lefties, so it’s hardly going to be a debate so much as a big self-congratulatory group hug. Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Danske and Credit Agricole are all short GBPUSD, targeting 1.50 and below.

 
USD
The dollar didn’t perform particularly well as monetary policy expectations slipped just 10 days ahead of the next FOMC policy meeting which was once the subject of much speculation over it being the watershed for rate hikes. Chinese data continues to worsen, not helping global risk appetite, but US futures are holding up after yesterday’s Labor Day holiday, and the dollar is trading lower against the majority of its most actively traded counterparts. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that recent economic data was “as good or better” than he had been expecting, but stopped short of calling for a rate hike this month, although in August he did say he felt it safer to start earlier and raise gradually.

 
EUR
The ECB said another 51.6b euros in securities were purchased in August, far lower than the 60+b euros in June and July, an indication of the reduced levels of liquidity over the summer. There a few pieces of data but none of it important so I haven’t bothered listing them in today’s report. Danske, UOB and Barclays are all short EURUSD, with Barclays still holding on to 1.04 as a target. In GBPEUR Credit Agricole are targeting 1.4285, and Credit Suisse 1.3369.

 

UK HEADLINES
Telegraph – China’s foreign exchange war chest drained as growth fears intensify.
Independent – Bonuses in FTSE100 bear no resemblance to performance.
FT – Employers fear impact of living wage.

 

UK Pound Sterling, US Dollar and EUR single currency commentary provided by Argentex

This article Brexit talks and GBP Sterling, US Dollar, Euro Currency was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Market Round up: Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, Glencore PLC, Advanced Oncotherapy PLC, North River Resources plc https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/market-round-up-royal-bank-of-scotland-group-plc-glencore-plc-advanced-oncotherapy-plc-north-river-resources-plc/412673912 Wed, 05 Aug 2015 11:00:45 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=673912 Sterling today has risen against it’s major peers despite PMI services data being reported slightly lower than expected The Pound against the Euro (GBPEUR) is up over 0.4% to 1.4357 (at 11.40am). PMI services data (which accounts for over 70% of GDP) fell to 57.4 in July from 58.5 in June today’s expectation was 58.1. ...

This article Market Round up: Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, Glencore PLC, Advanced Oncotherapy PLC, North River Resources plc was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Sterling today has risen against it’s major peers despite PMI services data being reported slightly lower than expected The Pound against the Euro (GBPEUR) is up over 0.4% to 1.4357 (at 11.40am). PMI services data (which accounts for over 70% of GDP) fell to 57.4 in July from 58.5 in June today’s expectation was 58.1. Despite this the pound continues to rally no doubt on the back of foreign investors buying Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc shares and the BoE rate decision and minutes which will be announced tommorow.

 

 

Speaking of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (found using ticker code: LON:RBS ) shares have increased 2.33% or 7.9 points throughout today’s trading session so far. Investors have so far held a positive outlook during the session. Range high for the period has seen 348.7 dipping to 340.8. The total volume of shares exchanged through this period comes to 18,532,780 whilst the daily average number of shares exchanged is just 16,587,883. The stock 52 week high is 414 some 75 points different to the previous business close and a 52 week low sitting at 326.1 making a difference of 12.9 points. Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc now has a 20 moving average of 354.28 and now its 50 day moving average at 355.89. The market cap now stands at £40,137.18m at the time of this report. The share price is in Great British pence. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:38:14 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 346.9 GBX.

 
Shares of BHP Billiton plc found using EPIC: LON:BLT have moved up 3.32% or 38.5 points during today’s session so far. Buyers have remained positive throughout the trading session. The periods high has reached 1200 and hitting a low of 1167. Volume total for shares traded at this point reached 3,334,324 with the daily average at 8,519,093. The 52 week high price for the shares is 2102.53 amounting to 943.53 points difference from the previous close and the 52 week low at 1117.5 a difference of some 41.5 points. BHP Billiton plc has a 20 day moving average of 1213.53 and also a 50 day simple moving average now at 1289.38. The market capitalisation is now £65,550.75m at the time of this report. Share price is traded in GBX. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for BHP Billiton plc being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:37:42 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 1197.5 GBX.

 

 

The share price for Glencore PLC found using EPIC: LON:GLEN have climbed 2.2% or 4.4 points during today’s session so far. Market buyers are a positive bunch during the session. The period high has peaked at 205.05 and hitting a low of 201.65. The volume total for shares traded up to this point was 14,952,162 with the average number of shares traded daily being 38,611,570. The stock 52 week high is 376.5 around 176.35 points in difference on the previous days close and a 52 week low being 200 a difference of some 0.1506 points. Glencore PLC now has a 20 moving average of 232.02 and now its 50 day moving average now of 258.51. The current market cap is £26,792.21m at the time of this report. The currency for this stock is Great British pence.Market cap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Glencore PLC being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:38:44 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 204.55 GBX.

 
The stock price for London Stock Exchange Group Plc with ticker code: LON:LSE have increased 2.17% or 56 points during the course of today’s session so far. Market buyers are a positive bunch during the trading session. The high for the period has reached 2653 meanwhile the session low reached 2606. The total volume traded so far comes to 472,615 with the daily average traded share volume around 771,460. The stock 52 week high is 2725 amounting to 147 points difference from the previous days close and putting the 52 week low at 1675.57 which is a variance of 902.43 points. London Stock Exchange Group Plc has a 20 SMA of 2611.16 and now its 50 day moving average now at 2504.81. Market capitalisation is now £9,195.64m at the time of this report. The currency for this stock is Great British pence.Market cap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for London Stock Exchange Group Plc being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:37:08 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 2634 GBX.

 

 

Shares in Rio Tinto plc found using EPIC: LON:RIO have climbed 2.98% or 73.5 points during today’s session so far. Investors are a positive bunch during the session. The periods high has already touched 2551.5 while the low for the session was 2491.5. The total volume of shares exchanged so far has reached 2,338,416 while the average shares exchanged is 4,683,203. The 52 week high for the shares is 3530.5 equating to 1060 points difference from the previous days close and putting the 52 week low at 2373 is a variance of 97.5 points. Rio Tinto plc now has a 20 simple moving average of 2545.54 and now a 50 day moving average now of 2695.67. This puts the market cap at £46,167.56m at the time of this report. All share prices mentioned for this stock are traded in GBX. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Rio Tinto plc being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:37:50 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 2544 GBX.

 
Shares in Standard Chartered PLC with EPIC code: LON:STAN have increased 2.02% or 19.2 points during the course of today’s session so far. Buyers seem confident throughout the trading session. Range high for the period so far is 1014 dropping as low as 929.1. The total volume of shares traded by this point was 7,025,303 with the daily average at 4,708,668. The stock 52 week high is 1250.18 equating to 297.58 points difference from the previous days close and putting the 52 week low at 867.5 which is a variance of 85.1 points. Standard Chartered PLC now has a 20 moving average of 1007.66 and also a 50 day moving average at 1035.54. The current market capitalisation is £24,786.95m at the time of this report. The share price is in Great British pence. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Standard Chartered PLC being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:38:23 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 971.8 GBX.

 
Stock in Tesco PLC with ticker code: LON:TSCO have increased 2.17% or 4.56 points throughout today’s trading session so far. Market buyers have stayed positive throughout the session. The period high was 215.26 and a low of 210.55. Volume total for shares traded at this point reached 5,364,874 with the daily average at 21,055,067. A 52 week high for the stock is 255.19 equating to 44.49 points difference from the previous close and the 52 week low at 155.4 a difference of some 55.3 points. Tesco PLC now has a 20 SMA at 216.16 and now the 50 day moving average now at 214.98. Market capitalisation for the company is £17,515.61m at the time of this report. The currency for this stock is GBX. Market cap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Tesco PLC being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:38:44 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 215.26 GBX.

 
Looking at the AIM Market:
Stock in Advanced Oncotherapy PLC with company EPIC: LON:AVO have gained 16% or 1.06 points throughout today’s trading session so far. Market buyers seem confident during the trading session. Range high for the period so far is 7.75 dropping as low as 6.6. The total volume of shares traded by this point was 2,966,179 with the daily average number around 3,180,734. The 52 week high price for the shares is 16.9 some 10.27 points in difference to the previous days close of business and a 52 week low sitting at 3.5 is a variance of 3.13 points. Advanced Oncotherapy PLC has a 20 day moving average of 7.89 and also a 50 day moving average at 8.77. The current market capitalisation is £111.39m at the time of this report. The currency for this stock is GBX. Market cap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Advanced Oncotherapy PLC being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:52:50 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 7.68 GBX.

 
The stock price for Edenville Energy PLC found using EPIC: LON:EDL have stepped up 12.5% or 0.01 points during today’s session so far. Investors are a positive bunch throughout the session. The high for the period has peaked at 0.07 dipping to 0.06. Volume total for shares traded during this period was 47,098,461 while the daily average number of shares exchanged is 42,003,753. A 52 week high for the stock is 0.12 which is 0.06 points difference from the previous close and the 52 week low at 0.04 making a difference of 0.02 points. Edenville Energy PLC has a 20 day moving average of 0.07 and a 50 day SMA of 0.08. Market capitalisation is now £4.99m at the time of this report. The share price is in Great British pence. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Edenville Energy PLC being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:45:26 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 0.07 GBX.

 

Shares in Ilika plc ticker lookup code: LON:IKA have increased 6.94% or 5.1 points during the course of today’s session so far. Buyers are a positive bunch during the session. The periods high figure was 81.72 and a low of 72.5. The total volume of shares exchanged through this period comes to 87,056 with the daily average traded share volume around 43,602. A 52 week share price high is 117.5 some 44 points different to the previous business close and a 52 week low sitting at 63 which is a variance of 10.5 points. The market capitalisation is now £51.67m at the time of this report. All share prices mentioned for this stock are traded in GBX. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Ilika plc being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:29:37 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 78.6 GBX.

 
Stock in North River Resources plc. ticker code: LON:NRRP have increased 20% or 0.05 points during today’s session so far. Traders have remained positive during the session. The period high has peaked at 0.3 while the low for the session was 0.3. The amount of shares exchanged has so far reached 1,159,684 whilst the daily average number of shares exchanged is just 1,403,368. A 52 week share price high is 0.95 which is 0.7 points in difference to the previous days close of business and a 52 week low sitting at 0.21 which is a difference of 0.04 points. The current market capitalisation is £6.11m at the time of this report. The currency for this stock is Great British pence.Market cap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for North River Resources plc. being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:21:15 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 0.3 GBX.

 

The stock price for Amur Minerals Corporation with EPIC code: LON:AMC have stepped up 6.08% or 0.99 points during today’s session so far. Investors have so far held a positive outlook while the stock has been in play. The period high has peaked at 17.51 meanwhile the session low reached 16. The amount of shares exchanged has so far reached 1,247,350 while the daily average number of shares exchanged is 9,645,812. A 52 week share price high is 44.58 amounting to 28.33 points in difference on the previous days close and a 52 week low being 2.5 which is a variance of 13.75 points. Amur Minerals Corporation now has a 20 simple moving average of 20.65 and now its 50 day moving average of 26.15. The current market cap is £75.20m at the time of this report. Share price is traded in GBX. Mcap is measured in GBP. This article was written with the last trade for Amur Minerals Corporation being recorded at Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 11:41:19 AM GMT with the stock price trading at 17.24 GBX.

This article Market Round up: Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, Glencore PLC, Advanced Oncotherapy PLC, North River Resources plc was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Why GBPEUR Pound to Euro exchange rates keep rising https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/why-gbpeur-pound-to-euro-exchange-rates-keep-rising/412671311 Fri, 17 Jul 2015 07:16:18 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=671311 The recent rise in the value of the Pound to Euro (GBPEUR) will be of keen interest to anyone planning a holiday to Europe in the near future but why are the exchange rates at the highest in over 7 years?     There are a number of factors that influence the exchange rates but ...

This article Why GBPEUR Pound to Euro exchange rates keep rising was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
The recent rise in the value of the Pound to Euro (GBPEUR) will be of keen interest to anyone planning a holiday to Europe in the near future but why are the exchange rates at the highest in over 7 years?

 

 

There are a number of factors that influence the exchange rates but the main factor driving the pound to new highs is down to Mark Carney’s statement on Interest Rates. Interest rates in the UK have been very low which many savers would be aware, however if they go up then more and more people will deposit money in the UK banks. Mr Carney announced that the Bank of England will raise rates much sooner than expected and just last night indicated that it could be at the end of this year. Of course if interest rates are higher in other countries then people might want to deposit their money there.

 

Other Factors
Aside from the knowledge that interest rates are due to increase, inflation is also playing a part. A higher inflation rate (compared to other countries) means that products in the UK cost more and so orders from over seas decrease. Forex traders expecting or seeing an increase in inflation tend to sell the currency, lowering the strenght of the pound. Just a few days ago the UK inflation rate fell to 0% and Mr Carney said that he expects inflation to remain low for at least the immediate short term rising around the turn of the year. A countries debt also plays a part with higher debt weakening the currency. Currently though the UK net borrowing as a percentage of GDP is decreasing and is expected to continue.

 

While there are other factors that drive exchange rates the good news is that the Pound to Euro exchange rate is in a good position right now and its expected to get better. Great news for UK holiday makers travelling to Europe.

This article Why GBPEUR Pound to Euro exchange rates keep rising was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
EUR – Greece Negotiations Rumble On – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/eur-greece-negotiations-rumble-on-argentex-daily-commentary/412668146 Thu, 25 Jun 2015 09:18:14 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=668146 GBP Sterling was the loser on the day though for no real perceptible reasoning. UK mortgage approvals were slightly lower than forecast but still up on the month and while we can look to Greece to justify general market volatility, it goes little distance in explain the pounds fall against both the dollar and the ...

This article EUR – Greece Negotiations Rumble On – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDSterling was the loser on the day though for no real perceptible reasoning. UK mortgage approvals were slightly lower than forecast but still up on the month and while we can look to Greece to justify general market volatility, it goes little distance in explain the pounds fall against both the dollar and the euro, and elsewhere. Technically, sterling has been bubbling around recent and key highs and sometimes, without further impetus to break new ground, currencies will simply retrace back in the direction they came. Danske bank remain long on GBPUSD with a view to ride out this softening while Credit Suisse hold a similar view, targeting 1.4160 on their GBPEUR long. Little data out for the UK again today so expect the recent ranges to hold true again and look for events in europe to dictate movement.

 
USD
U.S. First quarter GDP was slightly less bad than previously thought but it was hardly an exciting number given that the end of Q2 is already upon us. While hardly market moving yesterday, it is another argument for the bulls at the Fed to use in their justification for a September rate hike. Barclays posted a report yesterday, reiterating their faith in the dollar and stating again their target of sub-parity on EURUSD by “early next year”.

 
EUR
Over a day of relatively subdued action, the euro actually gained ground as news filtered out that Greek creditors are still not happy with their latest proposals – negotiations rumble on. Rather than causing the euro to drop through the floor, the single currency has again seemed to defy gravity. The ECB’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance – rock bottom interest rates, QE in full flow – means that investors can borrow in the single currency for investment overseas. As glimmers of a deal to be done have teased the market, the euro has weakened at this prospect of the currency being sold to fund these higher yielding returns elsewhere. However, as another round of submissions from Greece have been rejected, those trying to get ahead of the game are forced to buy back their euros and sit tight for a bit longer.

 

 

UK HEADLINES
FT- Cameron aims to launch EU renegotiations.
FT- Osborne urged to cut top tax rate to 40p.
Times- Markets shudder as Grexit fears return.

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article EUR – Greece Negotiations Rumble On – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Euro Currency: A new chapter for Greece – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/euro-currency-a-new-chapter-for-greece-argentex-daily-commentary/412667998 Wed, 24 Jun 2015 09:06:18 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=667998 GBP The pound gained against the euro as the single currency lost ground yesterday against most of its major counterparts and the knock-on effect was that the sterling-dollar rate drifted lower as well. With no tier I data at all, the pound was very much in the hands of others as to its overall performance ...

This article Euro Currency: A new chapter for Greece – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDThe pound gained against the euro as the single currency lost ground yesterday against most of its major counterparts and the knock-on effect was that the sterling-dollar rate drifted lower as well. With no tier I data at all, the pound was very much in the hands of others as to its overall performance on the day. Comments from the Bank of England’s Martin Weale suggested that he will be advocating a rate hike in the UK in the second half of the year. Given his position as one of the noted hawks on the committee this is not entirely surprising, especially given that he voted for a hike already last year, before subsequently falling back in line with his fellow members. Mortgage Approvals at 9:30am will likely come and go with hardly a flutter on the rates so look for further movements on EURUSD to drive direction on both GBPEUR and GBPUSD.

 
USD
Last week the Federal Reserve labored the point that any rate hikes would be very data dependant. Since then, US figures have disappointed against the consensus forecast in over half of the major releases, with this week’s key misses being Durable Goods Orders and Manufacturing PMI. Yet, from the start of this week the US currency has strengthened admirably. The next couple to days offers particularly important data points, in the form of weekly unemployment claims and PCE Price Index tomorrow, after today’s GDP reading for Q1. The dollar is still benefiting from the market paring back brief optimism for Greece from Monday night and is likely to remain well bid while negotiations are ongoing in Brussels.

 
EUR
The Eurozone had a whole raft of purchase managers’ indices released yesterday morning and without exception they were better than expected. French Manufacturing was above 50 (the pivot point to indicate expansion or contraction) for the first time in 14 months while their Services figure was the best since August 2011. The German and euro-wide variants also added to the positivity on the data front and as a result… no, actually there was little influence on the single currency from these figures. Yes, everyone still has their eyes on Greece. While it certainly feels like the saga is heading towards a climax this week, it is unlikely to be the end of the story, rather just heading into a new chapter for Greece. Today’s German IFO business climate number at 9am is typically a key release but with the Euro-group ministers formally meeting again today, the German figure’s influence will be dampened.

 

 

UK HEADLINES
FT – Bank hawk says prepare for rate rise.
Times – Bankers face 10-year clawback on bonuses.
Times – Brexit ‘is threat to the City, sterling and the economy’

 

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article Euro Currency: A new chapter for Greece – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Credit Suisse and Danske Bank both long GBPUSD – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/credit-suisse-and-danske-bank-both-long-gbpusd-argentex-daily-commentary/412666648 Fri, 12 Jun 2015 07:34:03 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=666648 GBP The Great British Pound has benefited from an environment in the latter half of this week of no news is good news. Focus is squarely on Greece, and the only real data released has been from the US, and it’s no different today. The greenback is pushing back above 1.55 against the dollar and ...

This article Credit Suisse and Danske Bank both long GBPUSD – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDThe Great British Pound has benefited from an environment in the latter half of this week of no news is good news. Focus is squarely on Greece, and the only real data released has been from the US, and it’s no different today. The greenback is pushing back above 1.55 against the dollar and looks likely to make another push to 1.40 against the euro GBPEUR. Credit Suisse and Danske Bank are now both long GBPUSD, with profit targets at 1.57 in the short term, however there’s a lack of anyone taking any significant positions against the euro as the degree of uncertainty is too high for even the thickest skinned traders. Important data next week for the pound includes CPI on Tuesday and the MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

 
USD
Bonds have been sold aggressively recently, and it’s reaching the point that it is having a moderate economic impact – if it continues it’s entirely likely that the Fed could sit up and take notice, leading to a delay in their planned rate hike schedule. However, data from the US since May has steadily outperformed analysts’ expectations, indicative that the world’s largest economy continues to recover at an underestimated pace. Fed funds futures currently place the greatest chance of a rate hike in the October meeting – the closer we get to Q4 this year the more sensitive the dollar will be to data. There’s plenty of data next week to interest the market, with the most important being the FOMC statement on Wednesday at 1900.

 
EUR
The IMF said that Greece is making “no progress” on a deal to unlock the last tranche of bailout money it needs to continue functioning. An emergency meeting yesterday was, according to Germany’s Juncker, a “last attempt” to thrash out a working deal. Greece has rolled this month’s payments into a single €1.5bn now due on June 30th, and next month it has further huge sums due to the ECB. Nomura, Danske Bank and Barclays are all short the euro against the dollar, targeting from 1.09 all the way down to 1.02. Morgan Stanley has placed a bet that the pair will rise to 1.1430. ZEW and CPI are important pieces of data next week from the Eurozone, however the inexorable march of Greece towards oblivion will distract most traders from taking much notice of data.

 

UK HEADLINES
Telegraph – EU issues final warning to Greece as last-ditch talks achieve nothing.
BBC – Years more spending cuts to come.
FT – UK Industrial Production rises sharply.

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article Credit Suisse and Danske Bank both long GBPUSD – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
GBPEUR still under pressure – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/gbpeur-still-under-pressure-argentex-daily-commentary/412666042 Tue, 09 Jun 2015 07:49:53 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=666042 GBP Overnight the British Retail Consortium’s monitor of Retail Sales posted a flat year-on-year reading – 0%. Hardly inspiring but at least a bounce back from April’s -2.4% result which had been the worst reading since May 2012. Hardly a major market-mover, sterling remains roughly mid-way between the high/low of the month so far, against ...

This article GBPEUR still under pressure – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDOvernight the British Retail Consortium’s monitor of Retail Sales posted a flat year-on-year reading – 0%. Hardly inspiring but at least a bounce back from April’s -2.4% result which had been the worst reading since May 2012. Hardly a major market-mover, sterling remains roughly mid-way between the high/low of the month so far, against the dollar, while the euro continues to exceed expectations across the board, keeping GBPEUR under pressure at the bottom end of the recent trading rate.

 
USD
General sentiment isn’t particularly fantastic at the moment, with the Dow Jones now in negative territory for the year. Technical equity traders are starting to prepare for long term shorts in indices as indicator after indicator continues to turn negative. Also risk appetite isn’t reacting well to the huge cost cutting exercise about to be undertaken by HSBC. Today and tomorrow sees little by way of data of any impact, but Thursday’s Retail Sales could carry more weight. One year inflation expectations according to a New York Fed survey rose to 3%, up from 2.7%, and matching the highest it’s been so far this year.

 
EUR
Data isn’t even in the car, let alone back seat at the moment as far as impact on the euro is concerned, which is very strongly focussed on Greece. Having postponed the financial collapse of Europe until the end of the month, the IMF has somehow agreed to let Greece roll up all their payments due this month into one large one at the end – given they couldn’t afford the small one last Friday unless a definitive deal is done this really will be D-day. Merkel said that Greece was running out of time, and that they would be supported but only if they implement reforms. Varoufakis said it was time to stop finger-pointing and find an agreement. Basically shut up and show me the money.

 

UK HEADLINES
Telegraph – World leaders plead with Greece to make bargain as ‘time is very short’.
Independent – HSBC to cut 25,000 jobs worldwide, including 8,000 in the UK.
FT – UK airlines to be sued over quality of air.

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article GBPEUR still under pressure – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
GBPEUR Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Citi Long – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/gbpeur-credit-suisse-morgan-stanley-and-citi-long-argentex-daily-commentary/412664810 Wed, 27 May 2015 09:34:08 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=664810 GBP Positioning in sterling has improved, with Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley and Citi all taking bets that the pound will appreciate against the euro GBPEUR, with Morgan Stanley targeting as high as 1.4925. The relatively wide ranges in GBPUSD these past few sessions have knocked out many institutional traders, and there are limit orders to ...

This article GBPEUR Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Citi Long – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDPositioning in sterling has improved, with Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley and Citi all taking bets that the pound will appreciate against the euro GBPEUR, with Morgan Stanley targeting as high as 1.4925. The relatively wide ranges in GBPUSD these past few sessions have knocked out many institutional traders, and there are limit orders to short the pound if it trades back in the 1.55 region. The pound is heading towards testing its highs above 1.42 again, but struggling slightly against the dollar as the greenback starts to take up its mantle as a safe haven currency again, thanks to Greece being in cruise control towards the cliff edge of a Grexit.

 
USD
The dollar put in a bit of a tear yesterday, and pulled back gradually overnight in a breather as is often seen following such a strong advance. Data from the US was stronger than expected, but the move is more likely due to some safe haven demand as fears intensify that Greece may well be headed for Armageddon. Fed futures remained unchanged – if the move higher in the dollar was due to good economic data rather than structural flow of funds then fed futures would be higher as the market prices in a greater chance of a near-term rate hike. FOMC member Fischer is due to speak this afternoon at Tel Aviv University on the global economic outlook.

 
EUR
It seems that the situation in Greece is finally having a direct impact on the single currency, with markets coming to the realisation that the issue perhaps isn’t going to go away and that burying their heads in the sand isn’t going to work. Greek Interior Minister Voutsis told local TV station Mega that Greece will not be making June’s payment to the IMF as there is no money to be given. Coupled with ESM head Regling’s comments yesterday that a missed payment would reduce the likelihood of a deal and lead to insolvency, it is looking like a real possibility that Greece could be ejected from the euro.

 

You might also be interested in reading ‘Traders love binary options as they are so profitable & easy to trade’ by Stratx Markets

 

 

UK HEADLINES
Telegraph – Eurozone leaders attempt to quell fears of Grexit panic.
Independent – FCA fines dip despite record Libor and forex penalties.
FT – Cameron plans fast-track bill for EU vote.

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

 

This article GBPEUR Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Citi Long – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Institutions are Long on GBPEUR – Argentex Daily Commentary https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/institutions-are-long-on-gbpeur-argentex-daily-commentary/412664166 Thu, 21 May 2015 07:33:12 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=664166 GBP The pound is being dragged around by its trading counterparts. Taking advantage of a sharply weakening euro, it looks set to retest recent highs above 1.42 if it can keep the momentum. In a clear sign that the move is nearly entirely euro-based as opposed to sterling strength, the pound is struggling to maintain ...

This article Institutions are Long on GBPEUR – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
Exchange Rate News GBP EUR USDThe pound is being dragged around by its trading counterparts. Taking advantage of a sharply weakening euro, it looks set to retest recent highs above 1.42 if it can keep the momentum. In a clear sign that the move is nearly entirely euro-based as opposed to sterling strength, the pound is struggling to maintain its level against the dollar, despite a dovish FOMC minutes release last night. Retail Sales due this morning has historically proven to be market-moving, and it’s expected to show a sharp improvement to 0.4% growth, from last month’s 0.5% contraction, which is a fairly tall order, leaving room for downside risk. Morgan Stanley are short GBPUSD, and Credit Suisse are long, targeting 1.51 and 1.5825 respectively, while both institutions are long GBPEUR, expecting well above 1.40 in the short term.

 
USD
The FOMC minutes were taken as dovish on balance. Policy makers noted that they thought it was unlikely that data in June would be sufficient to make the informed decision to raise rates, and there were a couple of mentions of the old favourite ‘inclement weather’ as the go-to excuse for poor economic growth in some states. Even though nobody really thought that the Fed were likely to tighten monetary policy this soon, the maintenance of the wait-and-see approach halted the dollar’s recent recovery and it traded within tight ranges against the majority of its most actively traded counterparts overnight. Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that oil is more likely to fall again, down as low as $45, given that the recent rebound is likely to restart production in several sites, which will increase supply and so hit the price. If this happens, it could feed through into suppressed inflation and delay monetary policy tightening.

 
EUR
The single currency continued to weaken yesterday, both on the back of Greek worries, as well as an announcement from the ECB that asset purchases would be stepped up in the coming months in order to accommodate seasonal fluctuations in liquidity. As I type Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis is on TV saying that they will definitely not be able to repay the IMF and that they will prioritise pensions and public sector salaries. The Troika will most likely step in at some point, but what’s happening in Greece really is akin to someone taking out payday loans to pay off last month’s payday loans. There’s a raft of PMI data due out this morning, but it’s likely to take a back seat to the broader macroeconomic and monetary policy climate. Draghi is due to speak this evening, at a Forum on ‘Inflation and Underemployment in Europe’.

 

UK HEADLINES
Telegraph – Barclays handed biggest bank fine in UK history over currency rigging.
Independent – Uncertainty takes hold over Cameron’s promise of EU referendum.
FT – Airbus chief warns UK over exit from EU.

 

Pound Sterling, Euro Currency, US Dollar exchange rate commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

 

 

This article Institutions are Long on GBPEUR – Argentex Daily Commentary was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
GBPEUR Thoughts of a coalition party hinders the GBP https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/gbp-vs-eur/412661361 Fri, 10 Apr 2015 13:29:00 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661361 GBP EUR With the pound dropping against most of its majors recently which is mainly due to the run up of the election its good to see that when it comes to the Euro, sterling (GBPEUR) can still hold its ground. The reason the election is causing problems is down to the fact that no ...

This article GBPEUR Thoughts of a coalition party hinders the GBP was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR

With the pound dropping against most of its majors recently which is mainly due to the run up of the election its good to see that when it comes to the Euro, sterling (GBPEUR) can still hold its ground. The reason the election is causing problems is down to the fact that no party at this point in time is looking strong enough to win with a majority. This means a coalition is required, which unlike last time could be drawn out over some time. With a worse than expected widening of the UK trade balance the pounds strength is inevitably weaker. While for the Euro Greece managed to pay its latest instalment to the IMF which initially helped to boost the single currency. Euro-zone leaders have asked Greece to revise its reform package and gave six days to come up with a new revised plan of action to to raise funds. With an increase of investors hedging their exposure taking up currency options it seems more believe the volatility in the pound will increase even after the election.

 

“BoE sensitivity to the GBP’s impact on inflation and uncertainty regarding the May general election outcome will serve to temper the recent appreciation in the pound in the short-term at least. EURGBP may give back another 2-3 cents of the recent decline ahead of the May vote,” says Richard Kelly at TD Securities.

 

Samuel Tombs, senior British economist at Capital Economics has said :”With lower commodity prices, strong job growth and rising confidence all providing stimulus, there’s every reason to expect 2015 to be another robust year for the UK economy”

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate is currently trading at 0.7246; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trading at 1.3799 as of 14.57 10.04.15

On a positive note (no pun intended), the pound still remains at one of the highest points its been against the Euro for 7 years which is great for UK holiday makers off to Europe.

 

This article GBPEUR Thoughts of a coalition party hinders the GBP was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Forex News: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 09.04.15 https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/forex-news-gbp-eur-usd-daily-commentary-09-04-15/412661262 Thu, 09 Apr 2015 10:57:37 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661262 GBP Sterling takes centre stage in terms of data, although it’s unlikely to take the reins and be a main driver of market movement. Trade Balance and the MPC Rate Announcement are theoretically important indicators, however neither are likely to stir up much interest, especially as futures currency markets are pricing in a rate hike ...

This article Forex News: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 09.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP

GBP EUR USD NewsSterling takes centre stage in terms of data, although it’s unlikely to take the reins and be a main driver of market movement. Trade Balance and the MPC Rate Announcement are theoretically important indicators, however neither are likely to stir up much interest, especially as futures currency markets are pricing in a rate hike from the UK in Q1 2016. The British pound failed to make a break above 1.50 again and trades below 1.59, whilst it has made good headway against the euro GBPEUR, trading back above 1.38 – this divergence against the dollar and euro is indicative of the move being dollar-led as opposed to pound-centric. Manufacturing production tomorrow is important, and the NIESR GDP estimate later tomorrow afternoon will be ignored as always. Credit Suisse are still holding their long GBPEUR position, aiming for 1.4255, and against the dollar the market remains short sterling.

 

 

EUR

German Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales were terrible yesterday, and it didn’t do the euro any favours which slid below 1.08 against the dollar, an important milestone on its way down from failing the important psychological level of 1.10. Most speculators now expect a retest of recent lows, and we are seeing more analysts calling for parity and beyond. Morgan Stanley actually entered a long EURUSD position hoping to see 1.16, but they are getting close to their stop at 1.07 – it looks like Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas’ trades targeting 1.073 and 1.04 respectively are more likely to be winners. No more data from the Eurozone now until Wednesday next week, which sees the monthly ECB press conference post-rate announcement, and CPI on Friday.

 

USD

The FOMC meeting minutes showed a split in opinions on when the first hike should occur. ‘Several’ members expected a hike in June, whilst ‘a couple’ preferred to wait until 2016. The ubiquitous excuse of inclement weather made an appearance in part of an explanation of recent sluggish growth figures. The stronger dollar was given as a reason for growth forecasts being revised down, and the mot du jour ‘patience’ is back, with policymakers saying that the improvement in factors such as unemployment warrants the removal of forward rate guidance but that ‘the committee would remain patient in beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy’ whatever that means.

 

Currency commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

 

This article Forex News: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 09.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 08.04.15 https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/forex-gbp-eur-usd-daily-commentary-08-04-15/412661134 Wed, 08 Apr 2015 08:21:10 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661134 GBP Services PMI, a leading indicator of the most prominent contributor to our domestic product, was strong, beating analysts’ expectations comfortably and so helping the pound sterling push higher against both the euro and U.S. dollar (GBPEUR and GBPUSD). The BoE Credit Conditions Survey this morning won’t be of much significance to the currency markets, and ...

This article Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 08.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP

GBP  EUR USDServices PMI, a leading indicator of the most prominent contributor to our domestic product, was strong, beating analysts’ expectations comfortably and so helping the pound sterling push higher against both the euro and U.S. dollar (GBPEUR and GBPUSD). The BoE Credit Conditions Survey this morning won’t be of much significance to the currency markets, and neither will tomorrow’s MPC rate announcement. Unlike the ECB, the MPC make no statement and don’t hold a press conference unless they actually make a policy change, so more attention will be focussed on the minutes of the meeting released in two weeks’ time. Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are all short GBP/USD, with profit targets at 1.4050, 1.45 and 1.43 respectively.

 

EUR

Greece have put a number on the reparations they believe they are due from WWII. The fact they are expending energy even suggesting that Germany owes them 279 billion euros is not just farcical, it’s embarrassing. Strange that the number they have come up with is just higher than the 240 billion euro bailout amount. Germany, for its part, has said via Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel that Germany is ready to help Greece get back on its feet, but that he can’t see how. A payment to the IMF is due tomorrow, and Greece reckon they are going to pay it, but before the end of the month they will almost certainly run out of cash (again) without the can being kicked down the road again. PMI data from the Eurozone was decent, helping keep the single currency from sliding too far – the EURUSD tested lows of 1.08, below which we’d expect to see a continuation towards parity, especially given its failed to consolidate above 1.10 twice now.

 

USD

Goldman have been talking the oil price down, but without any news the commodity has actually risen by close to 10% – today’s Crude Oil Inventories number will provide cud for traders to chew. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) showed there were 5.13 million job openings in February, which is the highest level since 2001, and indicative of firms finding it difficult to fill vacancies – a similar situation to that in the UK where many jobs are being created but skewed towards unskilled low-paid manual labour. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota said that he thinks it appropriate for the FOMC to hold rates until the second half of 2016, citing price stability and employment as reasons for his dovish stance. He’s not actually a member of the FOMC and is stepping down next year, but it’s still an important divergent view from the consensus calling for a rate hike in Q3/4 this year. The FOMC meeting minutes this evening will be watched closely for interest rate timing cues and as always carries potential for severe market moves.

 

Currency commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

 

 

This article Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 08.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 07.04.15 https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/forex-gbp-usd-eur-daily-commentary-07-04-15/412661069 Tue, 07 Apr 2015 07:34:27 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661069 GBP Sterling has spent the Easter holiday swinging around against both the dollar (GBPUSD) and euro (GBPEUR), with some fairly sharp moves in both directions. After testing lows around 1.3550 twice against the euro (a ‘double bottom’ is quite a significant technical indicator that increases the likelihood of a move higher) on Friday, we start ...

This article Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 07.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP
GBP USD EURSterling has spent the Easter holiday swinging around against both the dollar (GBPUSD) and euro (GBPEUR), with some fairly sharp moves in both directions. After testing lows around 1.3550 twice against the euro (a ‘double bottom’ is quite a significant technical indicator that increases the likelihood of a move higher) on Friday, we start the UK’s first trading session of the week in the low 1.36s, still a fair bit off Wednesday’s highs just above 1.37. The catalyst for the move was Friday’s abysmal Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which weakened the dollar immediately in the aftermath, which allowed the pound to climb to short term highs above 1.4980, but 1.50 remained elusive. The UK is in focus today with the release of PMI data from the services sector, arguably the most important UK data release this week, given the likelihood of a change to base rates is pretty much nil on Thursday.

 

EUR
Greece is still dragging its feet – they insist their poorly prepared homework was adequate whilst the strict schoolmaster of Germany is insisting it’s not good enough and needs more work. What’s becoming clearer is that Syriza has made promises to the Greek people they have no way of keeping – they either need to go completely against their word and implement some austerity measures the Greek people really won’t like, or leave the euro altogether. In two days’ time they are due to make a loan repayment to the IMF, and before the end of the month there are billions of bond coupons due – if they default on any then the euro will get hammered. German Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales data are all that remain after this morning’s PMI readings, but they’d have to be very out of line in order to cause any sustained move against the backdrop of increasing tension over Greece.

 

USD
The Bureau of Labour Statistics confirmed that US employers added only 126,000 new jobs in March, far below the consensus expectation of 245,000. The dollar immediately weakened across the board and stocks reacted negatively. The move against the euro was more pronounced than the pound, hence GBPEUR falling despite new highs on GBPUSD. Service sector PMI data beat expectations yesterday, and the dollar has gained some ground against both the pound and euro, along with some corrective bounces in US equity indexes. A report in the FT yesterday suggested that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink will warn of the destructive potential of a strong US dollar on confidence in the economy, potentially leading to a slowdown – this could be a partial explanation of Friday’s terrible Non-Farm Payrolls number, despite many making the go-to inclement weather excuse.
Currency commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article Forex: GBP EUR USD Daily Commentary 07.04.15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD
Pound / Euro: Is The Best Of The Rally Over? https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/pound-euro-is-the-best-of-the-rally-over/412661059 Tue, 07 Apr 2015 06:57:27 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661059 Pound to Euro: (GBPEUR) Is The Best Of The Rally Over? Before we take a charting look at the GBP v EUR, one of the better rules as far as the financial markets is concerned is that once the market in question gets into the national press (not just the financial press), the best of ...

This article Pound / Euro: Is The Best Of The Rally Over? was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
Pound to Euro: (GBPEUR) Is The Best Of The Rally Over?

Before we take a charting look at the GBP v EUR, one of the better rules as far as the financial markets is concerned is that once the market in question gets into the national press (not just the financial press), the best of the move in question is likely to be over. While there is very often a slight delay ( a few weeks, to a couple of months), this is usually a good rule to follow.

It may be the case for instance, that the hysteria which accompanied Crude Oil heading below $50 is essentially the worst this commodity will see. If this is the case it would be equal and opposite to the way that the “parabolic” bull run for Gold going into 2011 ending in tears, and until now has still wrong footed those buying the dip.

 

GBPEUR

 

Interestingly enough the recent new record high for the FTSE 100 did not really capture the imagination of the press as much as the soaring price of the Pound sterling versus the Euro (GBPEUR). This is presumably for a couple of reasons. The first is that we are of course in the run up to the General Election and the Euro / EU and the Grexit issue are very much in the limelight at the moment. The second is that the Pound has a populist aspect to it, both in terms of how much holiday spending money we may have, but also whether it is worth snapping up a bargain on The Riviera or the Costa Del Sol. In other words, it makes for easy journalistic copy? A good example of this was in The Telegraph where a panel of “experts” were asked whether it is better change your money into Euros now or after the General Election on May 7? The correct answer on a practical basis is that it is probably best to change half now and half next month.

 

GBP/EUR Technical View

On a technical basis the answer is perhaps a little different as we are attempting to stick our necks out via the daily chart pattern of the past years GBP/EUR pairing. The overall perspective here is that this cross is in a rising trend channel from November, with the resistance line projection target as high as €1.45 implied over the next 2-3 months. But before Sterling bulls sing victory it may be noting a couple of points. The first is the way that the end of March delivered a significantly lower high versus the €1.42 plus peak to start the month. The second point to note is that since the high was made the 20 day moving average now at €1.3792 has capped the price action. The implication is that if you are cautious of this market you may wish to wait on a clearance of this feature before targeting €1.45. This is because unless or until the 20 day line is cracked there is the risk of a retracement back towards the floor of the November channel at €1.33, even if the big rally for the Pound continues again after that.

 

 

This article Pound / Euro: Is The Best Of The Rally Over? was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBPEUR
Forex: GBP USD EUR Daily Commentary 02.04-15 https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/gbp-usd-eur-daily-commentary-02-04-15/412661005 Thu, 02 Apr 2015 07:11:13 +0000 http://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/?p=661005 GBP There’s been very little data this week from the UK. The Current Account deficit was slightly worse than expected, while GDP was a nice upside surprise. Hidden beneath the headline good news of growth rates was the same old issue of stalling productivity, which is as a direct result of an expanding population willing ...

This article Forex: GBP USD EUR Daily Commentary 02.04-15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP

GBP-USD-EURThere’s been very little data this week from the UK. The Current Account deficit was slightly worse than expected, while GDP was a nice upside surprise. Hidden beneath the headline good news of growth rates was the same old issue of stalling productivity, which is as a direct result of an expanding population willing to take on jobs for lower remuneration – why would an employer of unskilled labour raise incumbents’ wages when they can hire new employees cheaper? It is this very measure of our economy that needs to pick up before the BoE will think about raising rates, but you won’t read much about it in the mainstream media as it’s a little close to the political kryptonite of racism. Construction PMI data today could shift the GBP slightly, but next week’s Services data is far more important. There’s also a rate announcement on Thursday from the BoE but even the most hawkish of commentators would struggle to make a coherent argument in support of a GBP hike now.

 

 

USD

Disappointing ISM and ADP Employment data overnight kept US equities underperforming their European counterparts, but the USD remained fairly resilient, maintaining levels below 1.08 against the euro. Fed member Lockhart participated in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Policy: Will the Traditional Banking Channels Remain Central to Monetary Policy “, where he stated that the factors he saw as contributing to economic weakness in the US during Q1 were transitory and that Q2 would see a marked improvement. He went further, suggesting the Fed were on course to hike in the June-September period, which is slightly ahead of the current markets’ consensus of Q4. Next week is fairly data light, and low liquidity due to the Easter break will see some choppy trading. On tap we have Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, and most importantly FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday evening.

 

 

EUR

The EUR struggled against the pound (EURGBP) somewhat, but it’s not yet given way to let the GBP push up to recent highs. The levels we saw a couple of weeks ago above 1.40 actually represent the halfway point between the 2000 high and the 2009 low, and as such any foray back to those lofty heights will see intense (EUR) buying pressure from both speculators taking profit and corporates covering euro liabilities. Short positions in the EUR are building up, with Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Danske Bank and BNP Paribas all short EURUSD. Bank of America entered a short-euro position yesterday against the pound, and plan on closing at around 1.4285. There’s some PMI data, German Factory Orders and Eurozone-wide retail sales next week, but focus will probably remain on anything from Greece.

 

Currency commentary is provided by Argentex (Ag-Fx.com)

This article Forex: GBP USD EUR Daily Commentary 02.04-15 was written by DirectorsTalk Interviews.


©2017 DirectorsTalk Interviews
]]>
GBP EUR USD